Do I ship it?

Games › Space Sim › Space Sim + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Space Sim?

Space Sim + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 29 developers who shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 17 developers shipped in the last year and 35 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 35 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $148 → $599 → $599 → $1.4k → $0 → $239 (still earning) → $270 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 5% $13k (exactly $12,724)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 129
Announced 35
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim, Shoot 'Em Up; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Bullet Hell, Action, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 735 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $12k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Power of Ten 2023 · $89k Star Survivor 2024 · $81k 1976 - Back to midway 2020 · $58k Captain Forever Trilogy 2018 · $42k Space Gray X 2024 · $36k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Power of Ten older $11.99 248 79% 7.4k $89k (exactly $89,206) Pew Times Three
Star Survivor $4.99 540 67% 16k $81k (exactly $80,838) SpaceOwl Games, Erabit
1976 - Back to midway older $14.99 128 89% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Ivanovich Games
Captain Forever Trilogy older $9.99 139 86% 4.2k $42k (exactly $41,658) Farbs
Space Gray X older $29.99 40 80% 1.2k $36k (exactly $35,988) Galactic Geckon
Deep Eclipse: New Space Odyssey older $6.99 165 73% 5.0k $35k (exactly $34,600) Ultravision Interactive
Insiders older $13.99 40 80% 1.2k $17k (exactly $16,788) ANG People s.r.o.
Neon Striker · EA $4.99 85 87% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,724) Zeno's Adventure Team, Nickonhawk Games
SHINORUBI older $24.99 16 50% 480 $12k (exactly $11,995) Last Boss 88
BARK older $9.99 39 82% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) Tic Toc Games
Mecha Harem: Bonds of the Abyss $9.99 34 73% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Morexingame
Asteroid Odyssey $4.99 30 36% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) LampDog Studio
Tentacle Wars $7.99 13 38% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) SlaveOS
BattleshipCrafting $5.99 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) 洛米条
Nanoplanet Survivors $3.99 12 83% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) Zac Marvin
Alastrius: Star-Fighter $11.99 3 100% 90 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Caledonia Interactive
Dux Solaris · EA $6.99 4 75% 120 $839 (exactly $839) MidnightMelon Games
ASTROSMASH 1981 $4.99 4 0% 120 $599 (exactly $599) BBG Entertainment GmbH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.