Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Space Sim?

Space Sim + Idler

Of 39 developers who shipped an Idler Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×200 the market median. Revenue is up 800% on the market; 55 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 800% on the market, 55 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $980 → $3.0k → $179 → $2.2k → $898 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $238 (exactly $238)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 5% $125k (exactly $125,431)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 82
Announced 55
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 800% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim, Idler; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Strategy, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,587 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $600, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Galactic Mining Corp older $12.99 868 84% 26k $338k (exactly $338,260) Windybeard
Space industrial empire older $5.99 1,022 85% 31k $184k (exactly $183,653) 游戏养家工作室
Vanguard Galaxy · EA $8.99 565 90% 17k $152k (exactly $152,380) Bat Roost Games
Void Miner – Incremental Asteroids Roguelite $5.99 698 83% 21k $125k (exactly $125,431) RyanJakob
Riftborne · EA $7.99 108 91% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,888) Pitio Productions
Mars Rover Simulator older $19.99 24 25% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) DexterCoding
CosmoOdyssey:Trip to Mars older $1.99 150 92% 4.5k $9.0k (exactly $8,955) Brenntkopf Development
Stellar outpost commander $8.99 30 83% 900 $8.1k (exactly $8,091) Kinderril
Galactic Simulator $4.99 46 76% 1.4k $6.9k (exactly $6,886) PcZ Games
Idle Fleet $3.99 41 82% 1.2k $4.9k (exactly $4,908) Idleforge Games
Holding Pattern $4.99 31 96% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Orange Acorn Games
Galactic Simulator 3 $6.99 21 100% 630 $4.4k (exactly $4,404) PcZ Games
Desktop Colony $5.99 23 100% 690 $4.1k (exactly $4,133) Mechabit
My Idle Space Cruiser $2.99 24 83% 720 $2.2k (exactly $2,153) Minicactus Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.