Do I ship it?

GamesThird-Person ShooterThird-Person Shooter + Space Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Sim Third-Person Shooter?

Third-Person Shooter + Space Sim

Only 8 developers shipped a Space Sim Third-Person Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Starfield Battlegrounds, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×14 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $180 against a market of $1.5k. 42 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 710% on the market, 42 announced, ×14 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Third-Person Shooter + Space Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Third-Person Shooter + Space Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $899 (exactly $899)
Top 5% $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 49
Announced 42
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 710% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Third-Person Shooter
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Third-Person Shooter, Space Sim
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 2,080 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $180, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $2.7k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×14 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Third-Person Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  2. + WesternFair15 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  3. + CollectathonLong shot19 devs · median $599 · 20 announced
  4. + Time ManagementLong shot15 devs · median $538 · 12 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorLong shot27 devs · median $479 · 27 announced
  6. + Class-BasedPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  7. + Creature CollectorPoor odds12 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  8. + DinosaursPoor odds8 devs · median $9.0k · 14 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds38 devs · median $7.2k · 63 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds12 devs · median $6.9k · 70 announced
  11. + Level EditorPoor odds10 devs · median $6.9k · 14 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds65 devs · median $5.1k · 156 announced

All 163 pairs on the Third-Person Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Galaxy on Fire 2™ Full HD older $7.99 1,479 77% 44k $355k (exactly $354,516) Fishlabs Entertainment GmbH
Lost Fleet · EA older $19.99 67 61% 2.0k $40k (exactly $40,180) InfinityNan Studios
Deep Eclipse: New Space Odyssey older $6.99 165 73% 5.0k $35k (exactly $34,600) Ultravision Interactive
Orange Cast: Sci-Fi Space Action Game older $6.99 143 46% 4.3k $30k (exactly $29,987) Team Rez
Intergalactic Ecstasy older $14.99 60 86% 1.8k $27k (exactly $26,982) HFTGames
NIGHTSTAR older $9.99 59 91% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,682) SOLIDMESH
SilverFrame(纯白星原) older $6.99 70 88% 2.1k $15k (exactly $14,679) phixcat
Arc Savior older $9.99 25 68% 750 $7.5k (exactly $7,492) Squid Monkey Studios
The Mystery Of The Moon older $59.99 3 66% 90 $5.4k (exactly $5,399) HUANG MEI ZHAO
Red Planet Rampart older $11.99 9 77% 270 $3.2k (exactly $3,237) Beijing 1023 Technology CO., Ltd
Starfield Battlegrounds $6.99 13 69% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) 谭浩翔
Red Siren: Space Defense $14.99 2 50% 60 $899 (exactly $899) ISTOM Games
Infinite Space: Mining $2.99 6 66% 180 $538 (exactly $538) Taner Saydam
Journey to Earth $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Digital Kingdom
GALAXY WARS Ⅱ $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) JIT Inc
Starship Destroyer $0.99 4 75% 120 $119 (exactly $119) North Star Studios
Battleships Collide: Space Shooter $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) HapGames
Space Rocks in Space $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Rock Hyrax

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.