Do I ship it?

Games › Space Sim › Space Sim + Action Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Roguelike Space Sim?

Space Sim + Action Roguelike

Of 23 developers who shipped an Action Roguelike Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $12k, ×20 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 42 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 42 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Action Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $899 → $298 → $539 → $299 (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Action Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $4.5k (exactly $4,491)
Top 5% $13k (exactly $12,724)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 57
Announced 42
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Action Roguelike
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim, Action Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Adventure
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Minimalist
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 798 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $540, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $12k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 42 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

EVERSPACE™ 2017 · $5.9M Shortest Trip to Earth 2019 · $980k Genesis Alpha One Deluxe Edition 2020 · $939k Power of Ten 2023 · $89k Star Survivor 2024 · $81k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
EVERSPACE™ older $19.99 9,809 77% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,882,457) ROCKFISH Games
Shortest Trip to Earth older $25.99 1,257 76% 38k $980k (exactly $980,083) Interactive Fate
Genesis Alpha One Deluxe Edition older $19.99 1,566 73% 47k $939k (exactly $939,130) Radiation Blue
Power of Ten older $11.99 248 79% 7.4k $89k (exactly $89,206) Pew Times Three
Star Survivor $4.99 540 67% 16k $81k (exactly $80,838) SpaceOwl Games, Erabit
Lost Fleet · EA older $19.99 67 61% 2.0k $40k (exactly $40,180) InfinityNan Studios
Cozy Space Survivors older $2.99 340 96% 10k $30k (exactly $30,498) simonschreibt
The Last Hope older $1.99 268 46% 8.0k $16k (exactly $16,000) Balti Calarasi
Neon Striker · EA $4.99 85 87% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,724) Zeno's Adventure Team, Nickonhawk Games
Space Killer older $7.99 46 73% 1.4k $11k (exactly $11,026) Two friends, VIWESA GAMES
Moon Crashers $7.99 35 62% 1.1k $8.4k (exactly $8,390) Castello Inc
Wrath and Retribution $9.99 23 91% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) Mad Vulture Games
Accretion $9.99 21 38% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) ValarFerys
Asteroid Odyssey $4.99 30 36% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) LampDog Studio
Orbitous $2.99 43 93% 1.3k $3.9k (exactly $3,857) Oddmin
BattleshipCrafting $5.99 10 100% 300 $1.8k (exactly $1,797) 洛米条
Ore Bastards · EA $8.99 4 75% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) INDIELLIGENT
The Finest Spark · EA $4.99 7 71% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Crossheart

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.