Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + 3D Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a 3D Platformer Space Sim?

Space Sim + 3D Platformer

Only 18 developers shipped a 3D Platformer Space Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Drifter Star: Evolution, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 24 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 24 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + 3D Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $718 → $179 → $269 → $210 → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + 3D Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $210 (exactly $210)
Top 25% $359 (exactly $359)
Top 5% $139k (exactly $139,450)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 73
Announced 24
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
3D Platformer
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim, 3D Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Crafting
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
all of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 1,229 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $210, 1 in 4 over $350, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Exo One older $16.99 5,053 89% 152k $2.6M (exactly $2,575,514) Exbleative
Drifter Star: Evolution $3.99 1,165 73% 35k $139k (exactly $139,450) Kayla Studio
Intergalactic Ecstasy older $14.99 60 86% 1.8k $27k (exactly $26,982) HFTGames
Keplerian Space Discovery · EA $24.99 25 88% 750 $19k (exactly $18,742) Kugelblitz
Spaceship Driver License older $49.99 11 100% 330 $16k (exactly $16,497) Gamesforgames
Mars Rover Simulator older $19.99 24 25% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) DexterCoding
Man in gravity older $24.99 12 91% 360 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Black Hole Simulator older $1.99 141 82% 4.2k $8.4k (exactly $8,418) PanGuoJun
TuHou Remilia - Begin Of Scarlet Family older $6.99 33 9% 990 $6.9k (exactly $6,920) CoKe_Deer
Metapilot older $19.99 10 70% 300 $6.0k (exactly $5,997) neurobotx, www.neurobotx.ai
Starfield Battlegrounds $6.99 13 69% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) 谭浩翔
Hexfactory $4.99 10 60% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Aquila Industrial
Initial Civilization $3.99 3 0% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Sun Peiyi
Solitary Astral Voyage $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Cruel Light
G-ASTRO $2.50 4 100% 120 $300 (exactly $300) ConnorRMCG
Sad Virus Space $2.99 3 66% 90 $269 (exactly $269) DIG Games
Muhe space $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210) klmfs
OutSpaceX_EP1 · EA $2.99 2 50% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Fun2Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.