Do I ship it?

GamesOpen World Survival CraftOpen World Survival Craft + Space Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Sim Open World Survival Craft?

Open World Survival Craft + Space Sim

Only 8 developers shipped a Space Sim Open World Survival Craft in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Astrometica, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 9 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $50k against a market of $1.3k. 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 37.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 19 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World Survival Craft + Space Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World Survival Craft + Space Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Median $50k (exactly $50,460)
Top 25% $515k (exactly $515,307)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,746,326)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 28
Announced 19
Effort 9 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $16.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World Survival Craft
effort 9 / 10 · low · dedicated multiplayer servers over a huge content build
Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
9 / 10 · studio only
Systems
Open World Survival Craft, Space Sim
Price point
$16.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 357,755 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.8k, median $50k, 1 in 4 over $510k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.8k. 19 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World Survival Craft with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $307k · 37 announced
  2. + Co-opPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  3. + Online Co-OpPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  4. + Immersive SimPoor odds14 devs · median $183k · 37 announced
  5. + PhysicsPoor odds8 devs · median $183k · 27 announced
  6. + Colony SimPoor odds11 devs · median $170k · 25 announced
  7. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $154k · 37 announced
  8. + ShooterPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced
  9. + PvPPoor odds22 devs · median $125k · 56 announced
  10. + Sci-fiPoor odds32 devs · median $124k · 76 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds34 devs · median $116k · 60 announced
  12. + RPGPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced

All 54 pairs on the Open World Survival Craft page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Empyrion - Galactic Survival older $19.99 29,204 78% 876k $18M (exactly $17,513,639) Eleon Game Studios
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
Astrometica · EA $19.99 2,912 82% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,746,326) BeryMery
Starpoint Gemini 3 older $29.99 759 49% 23k $683k (exactly $682,872) Little Green Men Games
Stars End older $19.99 1,129 63% 34k $677k (exactly $677,061) Reverie World Studios
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
QANGA · EA older $19.99 554 70% 17k $332k (exactly $332,234) iolaCorp Studio
Space Trash Scavenger $19.99 512 82% 15k $307k (exactly $307,046) SquarePlay Games
Star Shelter older $19.99 403 78% 12k $242k (exactly $241,679) Overflow
Utopia Colony $16.99 99 63% 3.0k $50k (exactly $50,460) GridSky Studios
Triton Survival $14.99 27 70% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Family Devs
No Ticket Back: Craft, Survive & Escape $9.99 16 87% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) GameEraStudios
Wreckborn $6.99 22 95% 660 $4.6k (exactly $4,613) Krystian Dobaczewski
Stellar Archipelago $12.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Gogodinosaur

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.