Do I ship it?

GamesImmersive SimImmersive Sim + Space Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Sim Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Space Sim

Of 60 developers who shipped a Space Sim Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 144 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 144 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper, while revenue is down 15% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 144 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Space Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.6k → $3.2k → $1.8k → $1.8k → $1.5k → $598 → $719 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Space Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $6.9k (exactly $6,886)
Top 5% $60k (exactly $60,143)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 193
Announced 144
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Space Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Flight, Sandbox
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 5,280 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $720, 1 in 4 over $6.8k, 1 in 20 over $60k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. Nearly all of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 144 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
Universe Sandbox · EA older $29.99 27,843 96% 835k $25M (exactly $25,050,347) Giant Army
Star Trucker older $24.99 4,928 77% 148k $3.7M (exactly $3,694,522) Monster and Monster
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Mars Horizon older $19.99 2,757 84% 83k $1.7M (exactly $1,653,373) Auroch Digital
Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator $34.99 1,319 97% 40k $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) Lyra Creative
ΔV: Rings of Saturn older $9.99 2,880 93% 86k $863k (exactly $863,136) Kodera Software
Tin Can older $19.99 1,073 85% 32k $643k (exactly $643,478) Tin Can Studio
Flight Of Nova · EA older $29.99 537 93% 16k $483k (exactly $483,139) Aerovery Lab
Meeple Station older $19.99 645 57% 19k $387k (exactly $386,806) Gameclaw Studio
Legendary Pilots $8.99 223 66% 6.7k $60k (exactly $60,143) BerkBox
Surviving Mars: Pioneer $24.99 78 83% 2.3k $58k (exactly $58,477) Bolverk Games
I Fetch Rocks $15.99 110 94% 3.3k $53k (exactly $52,767) SarumXR
In The Black · EA $19.99 84 72% 2.5k $50k (exactly $50,375) Impeller Studios
Lunar Ascendant $14.99 86 44% 2.6k $39k (exactly $38,674) Darts Games
Legitimate Space Corp Simulator LLC $12.99 82 69% 2.5k $32k (exactly $31,955) VHornet Games
Riftborne · EA $7.99 108 91% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,888) Pitio Productions
Periapsis: Eclipse · EA $14.99 53 71% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Skytrellis Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.