Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Space Sim?

Space Sim + Puzzle

Of 27 developers who shipped a Puzzle Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1188 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 34 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 34 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $3.8k → $718 → $839 → $300 → $1.1k → $179 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $598 (exactly $598)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,637)
Top 5% $746k (exactly $745,952)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 94
Announced 34
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim, Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Logic
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 4,715 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. All of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hardspace: Shipbreaker older $34.99 19,431 89% 583k $20M (exactly $20,396,721) Blackbird Interactive
Deliver Us The Moon older $24.99 7,510 87% 225k $5.6M (exactly $5,630,247) KeokeN Interactive
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Approximately Up $24.99 995 93% 30k $746k (exactly $745,952) Approximately Games
Osmos older $9.99 691 86% 21k $207k (exactly $207,093) Hemisphere Games
Rover Mechanic Simulator older $11.99 376 82% 11k $135k (exactly $135,247) ▲ Pyramid Games
Voyager-19 older $3.99 977 87% 29k $117k (exactly $116,947) Miziziziz
SPACE ACCIDENT older $11.99 292 82% 8.8k $105k (exactly $105,032) Whale Rock Games
Dofamine older $9.99 212 82% 6.4k $64k (exactly $63,536) Whale Rock Games
Quantum Void $11.99 69 95% 2.1k $25k (exactly $24,819) TacNours
Space Sprouts $10.99 51 96% 1.5k $17k (exactly $16,815) Schleuder Games
Cosmolace $6.99 16 93% 480 $3.4k (exactly $3,355) CCyoltose
Quantum Loop $5.99 17 100% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) slashslash, Declan Carveth
100 Cats Lost In Space Find & Color $7.99 11 100% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Two Cats Games
Star Freight $3.99 19 100% 570 $2.3k (exactly $2,274) Error 300
SpaceSteps · EA $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Net Get Games
5 Minutes Until Self-Destruction $1.99 28 96% 840 $1.7k (exactly $1,672) Part Time Monkey

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.