Do I ship it?

Games › Flight › Flight + Space Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Sim Flight game?

Flight + Space Sim

Of 90 developers who shipped a Space Sim Flight game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 182 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 58 developers shipped in the last year and 182 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 615% on the market, 182 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Flight + Space Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 90
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $861 → $718 → $3.0k → $270 → $299 → $210 → $1.1k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Flight + Space Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 90
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $7.6k (exactly $7,556)
Top 5% $816k (exactly $815,617)
Developers, 2 yr 90
Released games 364
Announced 182
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 615% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Flight
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Flight, Space Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Open World
Price point
$9.00 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.00.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 14,579 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $7.5k, 1 in 20 over $810k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. Nearly all of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 182 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Flight with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  2. + Hidden ObjectFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 10 announced
  3. + Quick-Time EventsFair9 devs · median $657 · 9 announced
  4. + CatsFair6 devs · median $629 · 10 announced
  5. + Life SimPoor odds12 devs · median $70k · 29 announced
  6. + TradingPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  7. + MiningPoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 13 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds14 devs · median $19k · 57 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $17k · 48 announced
  10. + EconomyPoor odds20 devs · median $15k · 45 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 18 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds10 devs · median $11k · 16 announced

All 132 pairs on the Flight page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

X4: Foundations 2018 · $38M STAR WARS™: Squadrons 2020 · $30M SpaceEngine 2019 · EA · $14M Avorion 2020 · $9.7M EVERSPACE™ 2017 · $5.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
X4: Foundations older $49.99 25,257 79% 758k $38M (exactly $37,877,923) Egosoft
STAR WARS™: Squadrons older $39.99 25,086 66% 753k $30M (exactly $30,095,674) MOTIVE
SpaceEngine · EA older $29.99 15,826 96% 475k $14M (exactly $14,238,652) Cosmographic Software
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
EVERSPACE™ older $19.99 9,809 77% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,882,457) ROCKFISH Games
X Rebirth older $29.99 5,156 42% 155k $4.6M (exactly $4,638,853) Egosoft
Starpoint Gemini Warlords older $34.99 3,076 72% 92k $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) Little Green Men Games
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Chorus older $24.99 3,876 81% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,905,837) Deep Silver Fishlabs
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Reentry - A Space Flight Simulator $34.99 1,319 97% 40k $1.4M (exactly $1,384,554) Lyra Creative
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
Approximately Up $24.99 995 93% 30k $746k (exactly $745,952) Approximately Games
Drifter Star: Evolution $3.99 1,165 73% 35k $139k (exactly $139,450) Kayla Studio
Legendary Pilots $8.99 223 66% 6.7k $60k (exactly $60,143) BerkBox
I Fetch Rocks $15.99 110 94% 3.3k $53k (exactly $52,767) SarumXR
In The Black · EA $19.99 84 72% 2.5k $50k (exactly $50,375) Impeller Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.