Do I ship it?

Games › Space Sim › Space Sim + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Top-Down Shooter Space Sim?

Space Sim + Top-Down Shooter

Of 31 developers who shipped a Top-Down Shooter Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 19 developers shipped in the last year and 62 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 60% on the market, 62 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $239 → $898 → $598 → $8.7k → $1.4k → $60 → $299 (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $899 (exactly $899)
Top 5% $45k (exactly $44,795)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 109
Announced 62
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 60% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim, Top-Down Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, PvE
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 793 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $240, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $44k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Starcom: Unknown Space 2024 · $3.3M Star Valor 2022 · $2.5M Landinar: Into the Void 2019 · $140k Transcendence 2015 · $96k Power of Ten 2023 · $89k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starcom: Unknown Space older $24.99 4,464 92% 134k $3.3M (exactly $3,346,661) Wx3 Labs, LLC
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Landinar: Into the Void older $19.99 234 55% 7.0k $140k (exactly $140,330) Convoy Games
Transcendence older $14.99 214 88% 6.4k $96k (exactly $96,236) Kronosaur Productions
Power of Ten older $11.99 248 79% 7.4k $89k (exactly $89,206) Pew Times Three
Star Survivor $4.99 540 67% 16k $81k (exactly $80,838) SpaceOwl Games, Erabit
1976 - Back to midway older $14.99 128 89% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Ivanovich Games
Star Nomad 2 older $12.99 137 67% 4.1k $53k (exactly $53,389) Huy Phan
Silent Sector older $14.99 108 82% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Rake in Grass
Warspace 2 $17.99 83 59% 2.5k $45k (exactly $44,795) Magic Game Art
Omen $11.99 41 85% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) Codex Interactive LLC
Neon Striker · EA $4.99 85 87% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,724) Zeno's Adventure Team, Nickonhawk Games
SpaceCraft Brawl $4.99 17 94% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) ruploz
Nanoplanet Survivors $3.99 12 83% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) Zac Marvin
The Finest Spark · EA $4.99 7 71% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Crossheart
Infinite Empire · EA $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Better Tools LLC
black screen $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) captkuso
Fortified Space · EA $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Nightsail Game Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.