Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Rhythm

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Rhythm game?

Rhythm

Of 511 developers who shipped a Rhythm game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 712 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $240k, ×511 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 712 games are announced against 312 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 712 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 511
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.2k → $299 → $2.1k → $449 → $900 → $776 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Rhythm: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 511
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,193)
Top 5% $243k (exactly $242,871)
Developers, 2 yr 511
Released games 1,797
Announced 712
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Rhythm
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 77,384 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $240k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 279 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 712 games are announced against 312 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Rhythm

89 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Survival + Rhythm Poor odds $356 22 devs
  2. Sports + Rhythm Poor odds $327 47 devs
  3. Procedural Generation + Rhythm Poor odds $299 28 devs
  4. Puzzle Platformer + Rhythm Poor odds $299 25 devs
  5. Arena Shooter + Rhythm Poor odds $297 18 devs
  6. Bullet Time + Rhythm Poor odds $297 11 devs
  7. Spectacle fighter + Rhythm Poor odds $240 11 devs
  8. Rhythm + Roguelite Poor odds $239 39 devs
  9. Rhythm + Top-Down Shooter Poor odds $150 14 devs
  10. JRPG + Rhythm Dead $91k 8 devs
  11. Tactical + Rhythm Dead $2.1k 10 devs
  12. Real Time Tactics + Rhythm Dead $1.0k 8 devs
  13. On-Rails Shooter + Rhythm Dead $657 9 devs
  14. Driving + Rhythm Dead $599 9 devs
  15. Dungeon Crawler + Rhythm Dead $449 6 devs
  16. Bullet Hell + Rhythm Dead $416 44 devs
  17. Rhythm + Hidden Object Dead $390 14 devs
  18. Platformer + Rhythm Dead $356 62 devs
  19. Parkour + Rhythm Dead $300 23 devs
  20. Grid-Based Movement + Rhythm Dead $300 14 devs
  21. Walking Simulator + Rhythm Dead $300 13 devs
  22. Boxing + Rhythm Dead $300 9 devs
  23. Quick-Time Events + Rhythm Dead $299 33 devs
  24. Rhythm + Typing Dead $299 15 devs
  25. Rhythm + Runner Dead $297 49 devs
  26. PvE + Rhythm Dead $297 32 devs
  27. 2D Platformer + Rhythm Dead $269 59 devs
  28. Racing + Rhythm Dead $269 44 devs
  29. Sandbox + Rhythm Dead $267 13 devs
  30. Rhythm + Incremental Dead $239 46 devs
  31. Flight + Rhythm Dead $239 15 devs
  32. Souls-like + Rhythm Dead $239 7 devs
  33. Rhythm + Tabletop Dead $179 8 devs
  34. Collectathon + Rhythm Dead $178 18 devs
  35. 3D Platformer + Rhythm Dead $150 41 devs
  36. Rhythm + Point & Click Dead $150 40 devs
  37. Precision Platformer + Rhythm Dead $150 26 devs
  38. Physics + Rhythm Dead $120 49 devs
  39. Rhythm + Match 3 Dead $120 9 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019 · $467M Geometry Dash 2014 · $89M DJMAX RESPECT V 2020 · $45M Beat Saber 2019 · $42M Hi-Fi RUSH 2023 · $25M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Geometry Dash older $4.99 595,606 93% 18M $89M (exactly $89,162,218) RobTop Games
DJMAX RESPECT V older $49.99 29,808 88% 894k $45M (exactly $44,703,058) NEOWIZ
Beat Saber older $19.99 69,750 95% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,829,075) Beat Games
Hi-Fi RUSH older $29.99 27,454 97% 824k $25M (exactly $24,700,364) Tango Gameworks
Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+ older $39.39 19,507 94% 585k $23M (exactly $23,051,422) SEGA
Rhythm Doctor $19.99 25,021 98% 751k $15M (exactly $15,005,094) 7th Beat Games
Just Shapes & Beats older $19.99 24,041 97% 721k $14M (exactly $14,417,388) Berzerk Studio
A Dance of Fire and Ice older $5.99 78,688 94% 2.4M $14M (exactly $14,140,234) 7th Beat Games
Metal: Hellsinger older $29.99 13,989 96% 420k $13M (exactly $12,585,903) The Outsiders
Dead as Disco · EA $24.99 12,354 96% 371k $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794) Brain Jar Games, Inc.
UNBEATABLE $27.99 6,552 92% 197k $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) D-CELL GAMES
Rocksmith® 2014 Edition REMASTERED LEARN & PLAY $9.99 15,615 85% 468k $4.7M (exactly $4,679,816) Ubisoft - San Francisco, Ubisoft - Osaka
Rift of the NecroDancer $19.99 5,844 93% 175k $3.5M (exactly $3,504,647) Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios I… (Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios Inc.)
Yunyun Syndrome!? Rhythm Psychosis $16.99 3,974 91% 119k $2.0M (exactly $2,025,548) Alliance Arts, WHO YOU
Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival $49.99 1,277 83% 38k $1.9M (exactly $1,915,117) Bandai Namco Amusement Lab Inc.
PATAPON 1+2 REPLAY $29.99 2,091 83% 63k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,273) SAS CO.,LTD.
Ratatan · EA $24.99 2,449 85% 73k $1.8M (exactly $1,836,015) TVT Co. Ltd., Ratata Arts
Everhood 2 $19.99 2,207 74% 66k $1.3M (exactly $1,323,538) Chris Nordgren, Jordi Roca

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.