Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Rhythm

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Rhythm Sports game?

Sports + Rhythm

Of 47 developers who shipped a Rhythm Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $330, ×0.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. Revenue is down 45% on the market, with 33 games announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 33 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Rhythm
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.2k → $299 → $5.8k → $359 → $1.8k → $300 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Rhythm: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $327 (exactly $327)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,846)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $57,562)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 213
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Rhythm; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Immersive Sim
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,793 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $330, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $57k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DJMAX RESPECT V older $49.99 29,808 88% 894k $45M (exactly $44,703,058) NEOWIZ
Beat Saber older $19.99 69,750 95% 2.1M $42M (exactly $41,829,075) Beat Games
EZ2ON REBOOT : R older $44.99 5,972 91% 179k $8.1M (exactly $8,060,408) Neonovice Co., Ltd., SQUARE PIXELS
BOXVR older $29.99 1,512 79% 45k $1.4M (exactly $1,360,346) FitXR
Synth Riders older $24.99 1,336 92% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Kluge Interactive
Waifu Fighter older $7.99 2,677 86% 80k $642k (exactly $641,677) Happy Monster Studio
KALPA: Cosmic Symphony $19.99 640 84% 19k $384k (exactly $383,808) QueseraGames
Synthwave Burnout $12.99 751 74% 23k $293k (exactly $292,665) Whale Rock Games
NeverSynth older $12.99 715 75% 21k $279k (exactly $278,636) Whale Rock Games
PowerBeatsVR - VR Fitness older $19.99 453 85% 14k $272k (exactly $271,664) Five Mind Creations
DrumBeats VR $14.99 128 65% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Marcel Eissens, VRROOM Ultimate VR Expe… (Marcel Eissens, VRROOM Ultimate VR Experiences BV)
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Beat the Beats VR $19.99 48 97% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) Parallel Circles
Dance Eden $19.99 42 85% 1.3k $25k (exactly $25,187) DigiEden
Live Rise!!: 4K Fever · EA $17.99 22 90% 660 $12k (exactly $11,873) SAKUSORA
Skullbreaker $29.99 13 92% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Sharkgame
EmberStride $29.99 12 91% 360 $11k (exactly $10,796) Sharkgame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.