Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Rhythm

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Rhythm Souls-like?

Souls-like + Rhythm

Only 7 developers shipped a Rhythm Souls-like in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dead as Disco, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $240 against a market of $1.5k. 23 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 4400% on the market, 23 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Rhythm
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Souls-like + Rhythm: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 5% $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 30
Announced 23
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4400% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Rhythm
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.39 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 303,945 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $240, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $9.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 23 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix+ older $39.39 19,507 94% 585k $23M (exactly $23,051,422) SEGA
Dead as Disco · EA $24.99 12,354 96% 371k $9.3M (exactly $9,261,794) Brain Jar Games, Inc.
Trombone Champ older $14.99 10,327 98% 310k $4.6M (exactly $4,644,052) Holy Wow Studios LLC
FIGHT KNIGHT older $19.99 1,547 91% 46k $928k (exactly $927,736) Team Sorcerobe
ONE BTN BOSSES older $11.99 165 87% 5.0k $59k (exactly $59,350) Midnight Munchies
Aim Climb older $6.80 225 89% 6.8k $46k (exactly $45,900) YuLu
Slash or Die older $4.99 150 84% 4.5k $22k (exactly $22,455) ClickGames
The Shaman's Ark $9.99 47 97% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) Amortiz Games
Pixel Samurai older $2.99 115 89% 3.5k $10k (exactly $10,316) ArtofKingsgame
Tides of The Endless · EA $7.99 25 84% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) Shimmer High Sea
Cadence $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) BitShift_Games
Blade Knight $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Sheldon Kalkman
Time Assassin $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 0cd studio
Vaporwave Hardest Game $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) RewindApp

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.