Do I ship it?

Games › Rhythm › Rhythm + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Rhythm Roguelite?

Rhythm + Roguelite

Of 39 developers who shipped a Rhythm Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 64 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240, ×0.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 64 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper, while revenue is down 70% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 64 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $48k → $11k → $120 → $3.6k → $449 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Rhythm + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $30 (exactly $30)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $6.4k (exactly $6,437)
Top 5% $106k (exactly $106,294)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 79
Announced 64
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Rhythm, Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Stylized, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,848 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $6.4k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 64 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Rhythm with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + Third-Person ShooterStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  4. + ModernFair15 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $7.8k · 13 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair23 devs · median $7.2k · 26 announced
  7. + ManagementFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair21 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  11. + SimulationFair114 devs · median $980 · 100 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 110 pairs on the Rhythm page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Crypt of the NecroDancer 2015 · $11M BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE 2020 · $5.8M Beat Hazard 3 2024 · $351k Rhythm Fighter 2020 · $171k Archons 2024 · $122k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crypt of the NecroDancer older $14.99 23,593 95% 708k $11M (exactly $10,609,772) Brace Yourself Games
BPM: BULLETS PER MINUTE older $19.99 9,598 91% 288k $5.8M (exactly $5,755,921) Awe Interactive
Beat Hazard 3 older $19.99 586 84% 18k $351k (exactly $351,424) Cold Beam Games
Rhythm Fighter older $14.99 380 80% 11k $171k (exactly $170,886) echo games
Archons $9.99 406 92% 12k $122k (exactly $121,678) BulletHell Studios
ROGUE LIGHT DECK BUILDER $3.99 888 94% 27k $106k (exactly $106,294) Gil Lawson
The Land Beneath Us older $14.99 230 79% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) FairPlay Studios
Wardrum $24.99 87 86% 2.6k $65k (exactly $65,224) Mopeful Games
Beat Slayer older $19.99 80 88% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) ByteRockers' Games
City of Beats older $19.99 70 85% 2.1k $42k (exactly $41,979) Torched Hill
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Kill The Music $9.99 106 96% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Nikko Nikko
Typing Break $8.99 96 80% 2.9k $26k (exactly $25,891) Tholus
Rhythm Storm $9.99 86 91% 2.6k $26k (exactly $25,774) Radiangames
Concerto on White: Cajon Story $8.99 59 94% 1.8k $16k (exactly $15,912) C11 Games
KILLBEAT $9.99 24 100% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Kalma Games
Coinsweeper $4.99 43 86% 1.3k $6.4k (exactly $6,437) Duo Forge Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.