Do I ship it?

GamesRhythmRhythm + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Rhythm Runner?

Rhythm + Runner

Of 49 developers who shipped a Rhythm Runner in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $270 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 24 developers shipped in the last year and 52 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 52 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Rhythm + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $179 → $150 → $119 → $359 → $300 → $120 (still earning) → $598 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Rhythm + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $297 (exactly $297)
Top 25% $809 (exactly $809)
Top 5% $20k (exactly $19,969)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 178
Announced 52
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Rhythm, Runner; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Action-Adventure
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 642 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $300, 1 in 4 over $800, 1 in 20 over $19k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Rhythm with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Choose Your Own AdventureStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + Third-Person ShooterStrong odds6 devs · median $3.3k · 6 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $18k · 52 announced
  4. + ModernFair15 devs · median $13k · 15 announced
  5. + Artificial IntelligenceFair8 devs · median $7.8k · 13 announced
  6. + LGBTQ+Fair23 devs · median $7.2k · 26 announced
  7. + ManagementFair19 devs · median $5.9k · 24 announced
  8. + Beat 'em upFair17 devs · median $4.5k · 15 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair21 devs · median $3.1k · 17 announced
  10. + Choices MatterFair36 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced
  11. + SimulationFair114 devs · median $980 · 100 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $802 · 9 announced

All 110 pairs on the Rhythm page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Melody's Escape older $9.99 4,336 92% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,299,499) Icetesy
BIT.TRIP Presents... Runner2: Future Legend of Rhythm Alien older $14.99 1,630 93% 49k $733k (exactly $733,011) Gaijin Games
Hextech Mayhem: A League of Legends Story™ older $9.99 2,238 79% 67k $671k (exactly $670,729) Choice Provisions
BIT.TRIP RUNNER older $9.99 1,828 86% 55k $548k (exactly $547,852) Gaijin Games, Choice Provisions
Neon Drive older $9.99 1,664 86% 50k $499k (exactly $498,701) Fraoula, Spiky Crumb
BIT.TRIP RERUNNER older $19.99 356 96% 11k $213k (exactly $213,493) Choice Provisions, Gamecraft Studios
Music Racer older $1.99 3,332 87% 100k $199k (exactly $198,920) AbstractArt
Runner3 older $19.99 261 75% 7.8k $157k (exactly $156,522) Choice Provisions
Melody's Escape 2 $14.99 284 95% 8.5k $128k (exactly $127,715) Icetesy
Fresh Tracks $24.99 53 94% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Buffalo Buffalo
Nebula Flow $17.99 37 97% 1.1k $20k (exactly $19,969) After Nap Games
RHYTHMKILL $9.99 45 82% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) GETTAKE
Synthwave Driver · EA $2.99 107 86% 3.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,598) Runebox Studios
Easy Running $8.99 12 83% 360 $3.2k (exactly $3,236) LUO WENJUN
Hypotheses on the Symmetry between Vision and Hands $1.99 54 96% 1.6k $3.2k (exactly $3,224) Finger tip
MusicRunner $4.99 18 83% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Sukesan
Dino running from a FURRY: GAMESFORFARM $2.99 21 100% 630 $1.9k (exactly $1,884) Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm
Ella Stars $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) SUSUSOFT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.