Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Rhythm

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Rhythm Survival game?

Survival + Rhythm

Of 22 developers who shipped a Rhythm Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2k, ×5.3 the market median. Revenue is up 290% on the market; 14 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 290% on the market, 14 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Rhythm
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $16k → $1.9k → $327 → $809 (still earning) → $653 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Rhythm: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $356 (exactly $356)
Top 25% $809 (exactly $809)
Top 5% $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 69
Announced 14
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 290% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Rhythm
effort 3 / 10 · medium · audio sync, timing precision and music rights

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Rhythm; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Action-Adventure
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 160 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $360, 1 in 4 over $800, 1 in 20 over $3.2k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
64.0 older $2.99 1,329 90% 40k $119k (exactly $119,211) rebel rabbit
Rap Pop Jump Core older $29.99 91 89% 2.7k $82k (exactly $81,873) Galactic Geckon
Zombodesert older $49.99 12 91% 360 $18k (exactly $17,996) Gamesforgames
Spaceship Driver License older $49.99 11 100% 330 $16k (exactly $16,497) Gamesforgames
Flying Tobacco Eggs older $39.99 13 84% 390 $16k (exactly $15,596) Gamesforgames
ReMix older $5.99 82 81% 2.5k $15k (exactly $14,735) GameSmith
Skullbreaker $29.99 13 92% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Sharkgame
life is not auto older $3.99 87 94% 2.6k $10k (exactly $10,414) Bold Fish
4X4 older $4.99 60 91% 1.8k $9.0k (exactly $8,982) Marimori
Murtop older $4.99 59 98% 1.8k $8.8k (exactly $8,832) hiulit
VILOVEJETS $9.99 11 100% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Polka Studio
Tied to the Beat · EA $4.99 21 100% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) Javier Lianes García
Wiseman: No More Breakups $1.99 48 97% 1.4k $2.9k (exactly $2,866) Gilang Gumelar Studios
Dino running from a FURRY: GAMESFORFARM $2.99 21 100% 630 $1.9k (exactly $1,884) Piece Of Voxel, Gamesforfarm
Outer Space Bar $8.99 3 66% 90 $809 (exactly $809) OZNA STUDIO
Synthularity $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Inc Inc
Is this a Game yet? · EA $1.99 12 91% 360 $716 (exactly $716) Onizumi Kohari
Escape the House $0.99 22 95% 660 $653 (exactly $653) REVO Team's
Zombiemachia $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Kornux Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.