Games › Mechanics › Open World
Should I ship an Open World game?
Open World
Of 2,347 developers who shipped an Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5,478 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×2.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $3.7M, ×2529 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 5,478 games are announced against 1,370 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.1k (exactly $3,148) |
| Top 25% | $55k (exactly $54,863) |
| Top 5% | $3.8M (exactly $3,788,154) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 2,347 |
| Released games | 8,534 |
| Announced | 5,478 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 2,427,867 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 1,260 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 5,478 games are announced against 1,370 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
All pairs with Open World
- Open World + Horror Poor odds $1.9k
- Open World + Spaceships Poor odds $1.8k
- Open World + Zombies Poor odds $1.8k
- Open World + Mystery Poor odds $1.8k
- Open World + Dystopian Poor odds $1.7k
- Open World + Nature Poor odds $1.7k
- Open World + Supernatural Poor odds $1.5k
- Open World + Psychological Poor odds $1.2k
- Open World + Demons Poor odds $900
- Open World + Superhero Poor odds $898
- Open World + Steampunk Poor odds $838
- Open World + Cyberpunk Poor odds $809
- Open World + Futuristic Poor odds $599
- Open World + Thriller Poor odds $599
- Open World + Aliens Poor odds $420
- Open World + Conspiracy Poor odds $419
- Open World + Ninja Dead $137k
- Open World + Hacking Dead $68k
- Open World + Villain Protagonist Dead $48k
- Open World + Assassins Dead $18k
- Open World + Time Travel Dead $3.1k
Comparable games
Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B 
Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B 
Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B 
ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B 
Rust 2018 · $1.4B | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Cyberpunk 2077 | older | $59.99 | 883,400 87% | 27M | $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Black Myth: Wukong | older | $59.99 | 881,186 96% | 26M | $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) | Game Science |
| | Red Dead Redemption 2 | older | $59.99 | 846,270 92% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) | Rockstar Games |
| | ELDEN RING | older | $59.99 | 831,470 93% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Rust | older | $39.99 | 1,167,920 87% | 35M | $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) | Facepunch Studios |
 | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
 | HELLDIVERS™ 2 | older | $39.99 | 838,901 76% | 25M | $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) | Arrowhead Game Studios |
 | DayZ | older | $49.99 | 387,850 78% | 12M | $582M (exactly $581,658,645) | Bohemia Interactive |
 | No Man's Sky | older | $59.99 | 315,054 83% | 9.5M | $567M (exactly $567,002,684) | Hello Games |
 | DARK SOULS™ III | older | $59.99 | 278,034 94% | 8.3M | $500M (exactly $500,377,790) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
 | Valheim | $29.99 | 464,893 94% | 14M | $418M (exactly $418,264,232) | Iron Gate AB | |
 | Palworld | $29.99 | 411,947 94% | 12M | $371M (exactly $370,628,716) | Pocketpair | |
 | ARC Raiders | $39.99 | 299,346 82% | 9.0M | $359M (exactly $359,125,396) | Embark Studios | |
 | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
 | Crimson Desert Enhanced | $69.99 | 115,056 83% | 3.5M | $242M (exactly $241,583,083) | Pearl Abyss | |
 | Monster Hunter Wilds | $39.99 | 200,984 52% | 6.0M | $241M (exactly $241,120,505) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | Hollow Knight: Silksong | $19.99 | 386,977 89% | 12M | $232M (exactly $232,070,107) | Team Cherry | |
 | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
 | Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced | $29.99 | 210,784 83% | 6.3M | $190M (exactly $189,642,365) | Rockstar North | |
 | Forza Horizon 6 | $69.99 | 86,730 82% | 2.6M | $182M (exactly $182,106,981) | Playground Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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