Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Villain Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Villain-Led Open World game?

Open World + Villain Protagonist

Only 5 developers shipped a Villain-Led Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mr. Sleepy Man, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×7.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $48k against a market of $1.5k. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 32.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 15 announced, ×7.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Villain Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World + Villain Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $41k (exactly $41,359)
Median $48k (exactly $47,981)
Top 25% $203k (exactly $203,207)
Top 5% $381k (exactly $381,409)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 40
Announced 15
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $16.66

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Villain Protagonist
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World
Price point
$16.66 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 108,998 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $42k, median $48k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $42k. 15 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League 2024 · $27M Maneater 2021 · $26M Prototype 2 2012 · $12M Tyranny 2016 · $8.9M Destroy All Humans! 2020 · $8.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League older $69.99 12,718 60% 382k $27M (exactly $26,703,985) Rocksteady Studios
Maneater older $39.99 21,790 87% 654k $26M (exactly $26,141,463) Tripwire Interactive
Prototype 2 older $39.99 10,389 75% 312k $12M (exactly $12,463,683) Radical Entertainment
Tyranny older $29.99 9,877 87% 296k $8.9M (exactly $8,886,337) Obsidian Entertainment
Destroy All Humans! older $29.99 8,971 92% 269k $8.1M (exactly $8,071,209) Black Forest Games, Pandemic Studios
LEGO® DC Super-Villains older $39.99 5,798 91% 174k $7.0M (exactly $6,955,861) TT Games, Feral Interactive (Mac)
Battlefield™ Hardline older $39.99 4,000 68% 120k $4.8M (exactly $4,798,800) DICE
Hatred older $5.99 25,770 84% 773k $4.6M (exactly $4,630,869) Destructive Creations
LEGO® City Undercover older $19.99 7,414 91% 222k $4.4M (exactly $4,446,176) Traveller's Tales
Destroy All Humans! 2 - Reprobed older $39.99 2,271 79% 68k $2.7M (exactly $2,724,519) Black Forest Games
Mr. Sleepy Man $19.99 636 98% 19k $381k (exactly $381,409) Devin Santi
Highway Police Simulator $27.99 242 30% 7.3k $203k (exactly $203,207) Z-Software
Munch $16.66 96 60% 2.9k $48k (exactly $47,981) Mac n Cheese Games
Lords of Ravage $9.99 138 66% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) Synthetic Domain
Struggler $5.99 1 0% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Bulanke

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.