Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Superhero

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Superhero Open World game?

Open World + Superhero

Only 11 developers shipped a Superhero Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Marvel's Spider-Man 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810. 20 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper, while revenue is flat on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 20 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Superhero
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $18k → $11k → $898 → $1.4M (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Superhero: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $809 (exactly $809)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $1.4M (exactly $1,376,770)
Top 5% $60M (exactly $60,169,370)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 73
Announced 20
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Superhero
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 85% positive over 43,826 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $900, 1 in 4 over $1.3M, 1 in 20 over $60M.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Marvel’s Spider-Man Remastered 2022 · $183M Batman™: Arkham Knight 2015 · $67M Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy 2021 · $64M Marvel's Spider-Man 2 2025 · $60M Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales 2022 · $59M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marvel’s Spider-Man Remastered older $59.99 101,879 96% 3.1M $183M (exactly $183,351,636) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Batman™: Arkham Knight older $19.99 111,190 92% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,680,643) Rocksteady Studios
Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy older $59.99 35,397 93% 1.1M $64M (exactly $63,703,981) Eidos-Montréal
Marvel's Spider-Man 2 $59.99 33,433 83% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,169,370) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Marvel’s Spider-Man: Miles Morales older $49.99 39,234 93% 1.2M $59M (exactly $58,839,230) Insomniac Games, Nixxes Software
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 62,057 96% 1.9M $37M (exactly $37,215,583) Rocksteady Studios
Saints Row IV: Re-Elected older $19.99 57,525 87% 1.7M $34M (exactly $34,497,742) Deep Silver Volition
Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 55,935 95% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,544,219) Rocksteady Studios
South Park™: The Fractured But Whole™ older $29.99 31,985 85% 960k $29M (exactly $28,776,904) Ubisoft San Francisco
Gotham Knights older $59.99 15,688 68% 471k $28M (exactly $28,233,694) Warner Bros. Games Montréal, QLOC
LEGO® Batman™: Legacy of the Dark Knight $69.99 8,728 95% 262k $18M (exactly $18,326,182) TT Games
MY HERO ACADEMIA: All’s Justice $59.99 765 63% 23k $1.4M (exactly $1,376,770) Byking Inc.
Superhero Simulator · EA $5.99 867 73% 26k $156k (exactly $155,800) mightyraccoon! Studios
Evil Superhero Simulator · EA $2.99 17 88% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Superhero Central
Hop Drop $5.99 5 60% 150 $898 (exactly $898) Goon Squad
Super Nova $5.99 5 60% 150 $898 (exactly $898) DIG Games
Puppet Seed $8.99 3 0% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Moosopolis Games
Spooky Monkey $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) Xander Clinthorne
Project Almighty 2 $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) John C. Ragland

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.