Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Demons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Demon Open World game?

Open World + Demons

Of 41 developers who shipped a Demon Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 85 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270. 85 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper, while revenue is up 1250% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 1250% on the market, 85 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Demons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $153k → $11k → $449 → $1.1k → $898 → $5.4k (still earning) → $47k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Demons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $900 (exactly $900)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,384)
Top 5% $346k (exactly $346,027)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 130
Announced 85
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1250% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Demons
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 21,009 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $900, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 85 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mortal Shell II $49.99 18,644 79% 559k $28M (exactly $27,960,407) Cold Symmetry
Shadow Warrior 2 older $29.99 24,120 87% 724k $22M (exactly $21,700,764) Flying Wild Hog
Zombie Army 4: Dead War older $49.99 10,028 86% 301k $15M (exactly $15,038,992) Rebellion
Darksiders Warmastered Edition older $19.99 13,942 88% 418k $8.4M (exactly $8,361,017) KAIKO, Vigil Games
Carnal Instinct · EA older $29.99 5,407 82% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,864,678) Team Carnal Instinct
Blood West older $24.99 6,132 90% 184k $4.6M (exactly $4,597,160) Hyperstrange
Saints Row: Gat out of Hell older $14.99 7,701 75% 231k $3.5M (exactly $3,463,140) Deep Silver Volition, High Voltage Soft… (Deep Silver Volition, High Voltage Software)
Atlas Fallen: Reign Of Sand older $39.99 2,773 74% 83k $3.3M (exactly $3,326,768) Deck13
Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Prophecy older $24.99 2,884 79% 87k $2.2M (exactly $2,162,135) NeocoreGames
Toukiden 2 older $59.99 1,177 80% 35k $2.1M (exactly $2,118,247) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Trench Tales · EA $24.99 601 69% 18k $451k (exactly $450,570) Talking Drums
Eternity Egg · EA $19.99 577 82% 17k $346k (exactly $346,027) USERLANDS
Kingdom of Night $19.99 326 86% 9.8k $196k (exactly $195,502) Friends of Safety
Hauntsville $18.99 189 68% 5.7k $108k (exactly $107,673) Michael Janisch
Second Sun $19.99 115 69% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Grey Wolf Entertainment
ArkCraft: The Rebirth of the World $10.99 181 71% 5.4k $60k (exactly $59,676) ZD Yazilim
Snowed Under | 雪葬 $7.99 194 60% 5.8k $47k (exactly $46,502) Chilla's Art
The Story Page · EA $7.99 103 78% 3.1k $25k (exactly $24,689) SPR-Games
Besmirch · EA $9.99 79 97% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Gangru Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.