Games › Open World › Open World + Thriller
Should I ship a Thriller Open World game?
Open World + Thriller
Of 48 developers who shipped a Thriller Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 93 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 93 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper, while revenue is up 685% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $179 (exactly $179) |
|---|---|
| Median | $599 (exactly $599) |
| Top 25% | $9.9k (exactly $9,890) |
| Top 5% | $337k (exactly $336,863) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 48 |
| Released games | 130 |
| Announced | 93 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 685% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Thriller
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Dark
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 8,526 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 93 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Firewatch 2016 · $56M 
L.A. Noire 2011 · $19M 
Choo-Choo Charles 2022 · $9.8M 
The Sinking City Remastered 2021 · $6.4M 
Sherlock Holmes Chapter One 2021 · $5.7M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Firewatch | older | $19.99 | 93,690 90% | 2.8M | $56M (exactly $56,185,893) | Campo Santo |
| | L.A. Noire | older | $19.99 | 31,099 85% | 933k | $19M (exactly $18,650,070) | Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds |
| | Choo-Choo Charles | older | $19.99 | 16,292 91% | 489k | $9.8M (exactly $9,770,312) | Two Star Games |
| | The Sinking City Remastered | older | $39.99 | 5,361 75% | 161k | $6.4M (exactly $6,431,592) | Frogwares |
| | Sherlock Holmes Chapter One | older | $44.99 | 4,189 77% | 126k | $5.7M (exactly $5,653,893) | Frogwares |
 | ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies | $39.99 | 2,911 83% | 87k | $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) | ZA/UM | |
 | The Painscreek Killings | older | $19.99 | 5,784 90% | 174k | $3.5M (exactly $3,468,665) | EQ Studios |
 | The Suicide of Rachel Foster | older | $17.99 | 5,322 68% | 160k | $2.9M (exactly $2,872,283) | ONE-O-ONE GAMES |
 | Deadly Premonition: The Director's Cut | older | $24.99 | 3,243 65% | 97k | $2.4M (exactly $2,431,277) | Rising Star Games |
 | The Complex: Expedition | $14.99 | 2,620 89% | 79k | $1.2M (exactly $1,178,214) | pgWave | |
 | SILENT BREATH | $9.99 | 1,124 67% | 34k | $337k (exactly $336,863) | EXODIAC STUDIOS | |
 | Arctic Awakening | $24.99 | 328 84% | 9.8k | $246k (exactly $245,902) | GoldFire Studios | |
 | Nested Lands | · EA | $14.99 | 482 73% | 14k | $217k (exactly $216,755) | 1M Bits Horde |
 | Kingdom of Night | $19.99 | 326 86% | 9.8k | $196k (exactly $195,502) | Friends of Safety | |
 | Hacked: The Streamer | $8.49 | 268 73% | 8.0k | $68k (exactly $68,260) | Button Interactive, NAISU | |
 | Miami Paradise 2 | $14.99 | 131 94% | 3.9k | $59k (exactly $58,911) | Entropy Digital Entertainment | |
 | Snowed Under | 雪葬 | $7.99 | 194 60% | 5.8k | $47k (exactly $46,502) | Chilla's Art | |
 | Welcome to Free Will - Complete Edition | $4.99 | 142 90% | 4.3k | $21k (exactly $21,257) | Mr Strangelove |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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