Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Steampunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Steampunk Open World game?

Open World + Steampunk

Only 15 developers shipped a Steampunk Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SAND: Raiders of Sophie, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×0.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 61 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper, while revenue is down 95% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 61 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Steampunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $812k → $344k → $13k → $2.9k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Open World + Steampunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Top 5% $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 68
Announced 61
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Steampunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Crafting
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 51% positive over 13,390 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $840, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $9.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 61 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dishonored 2 older $29.99 42,988 90% 1.3M $39M (exactly $38,676,304) Arkane Studios
Assassin's Creed® Syndicate older $29.99 31,087 80% 933k $28M (exactly $27,968,974) Ubisoft Quebec, in collaboration with U… (Ubisoft Quebec, in collaboration with Ubisoft Annecy, Bucharest, Kiev, Montreal, Montpellier, Shanghai, Singapore, Sofia, Toronto studios)
Dishonored older $9.99 67,504 97% 2.0M $20M (exactly $20,230,949) Arkane Studios
Torchlight III older $39.99 10,401 47% 312k $12M (exactly $12,478,080) Echtra Inc.
Thief older $19.99 17,389 75% 522k $10M (exactly $10,428,183) Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac)
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
Dishonored®: Death of the Outsider™ older $29.99 9,801 86% 294k $8.8M (exactly $8,817,960) Arkane Studios
FINAL FANTASY IX older $20.99 12,447 95% 373k $7.8M (exactly $7,837,876) Square Enix
Styx: Master of Shadows older $19.99 9,654 83% 290k $5.8M (exactly $5,789,504) Cyanide Studio
Battle Chasers: Nightwar older $29.99 5,573 87% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,014,028) Airship Syndicate
Super Mining Mechs $4.99 841 86% 25k $126k (exactly $125,898) Delayed Victory
The Dawn: Sniper's Way $24.99 18 22% 540 $13k (exactly $13,495) PHOSPHORUS GAMES
The Wilds of Dacrima: Field Notes from a Poorly Supervised Alchemist and his Unruly Clockwork Companion $19.99 13 100% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Antler Studios
Heart of Gaia $13.99 7 57% 210 $2.9k (exactly $2,938) Brokentail Games
Tinker-World: Arrival at Kedhreon $6.99 10 90% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) From The Cave, TibiSoft
Mental Hellacious $13.99 4 50% 120 $1.7k (exactly $1,679) MoreNEWttoStudio
The Soul of Romit $3.99 7 57% 210 $838 (exactly $838) Kleon Studio
Endless Vine · EA $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Circuit Root
Anyship $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Schuette Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.