Do I ship it?

Games › Open World › Open World + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Open World game?

Open World + Ninja

Only 7 developers shipped a Ninja Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Assassin’s Creed Shadows, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $140k against a market of $1.5k. 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 91.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 16 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $46k → $6.8k → $14k → $9.8M
Outcomes for Open World + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $14k (exactly $14,086)
Median $137k (exactly $136,766)
Top 25% $25M (exactly $24,728,167)
Top 5% $73M (exactly $73,390,814)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 42
Announced 16
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $39.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World
Price point
$39.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 531,063 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $15k, median $140k, 1 in 4 over $24M, 1 in 20 over $73M.

3 in 10 developers made under $15k. 2 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition 2019 · $467M Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT 2024 · $116M Assassin’s Creed Shadows 2025 · $73M NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4 2016 · $43M NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER 2023 · $26M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Ghost of Tsushima DIRECTOR'S CUT older $59.99 64,591 93% 1.9M $116M (exactly $116,244,423) Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Softwa… (Sucker Punch Productions, Nixxes Software)
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4 older $19.99 72,409 90% 2.2M $43M (exactly $43,423,677) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
NARUTO TO BORUTO: SHINOBI STRIKER older $19.99 42,572 84% 1.3M $26M (exactly $25,530,428) Soleil Ltd.
Nioh 3 $69.99 11,777 78% 353k $25M (exactly $24,728,167) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Shadow Warrior 2 older $29.99 24,120 87% 724k $22M (exactly $21,700,764) Flying Wild Hog
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
NARUTO X BORUTO Ultimate Ninja STORM CONNECTIONS older $59.99 3,881 62% 116k $7.0M (exactly $6,984,636) CyberConnect2 Co., Ltd.
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 3 Full Burst HD older $19.99 10,749 89% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,446,175) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutants Unleashed $39.99 114 50% 3.4k $137k (exactly $136,766) AHEARTFULOFGAMES
戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- $9.99 47 89% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) hizaniya games
Glusiverse · EA $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Trusiga
The Legend of Kairo $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Derrick Davison

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.