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Should I ship an Alien Open World game?
Open World + Aliens
Of 50 developers who shipped an Alien Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 143 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $420, ×0.3 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180. 143 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper, while revenue is up 150% on the market.
| Bottom 30% | $179 (exactly $179) |
|---|---|
| Median | $420 (exactly $420) |
| Top 25% | $2.7k (exactly $2,726) |
| Top 5% | $88k (exactly $88,072) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 50 |
| Released games | 220 |
| Announced | 143 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 150% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Aliens
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, RPG
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 18,088 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. Nearly all of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 143 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
Subnautica 2018 · $307M 
Subnautica: Below Zero 2021 · $89M 
Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy 2021 · $64M 
The Planet Crafter 2024 · $50M 
SPORE™ 2008 · $40M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Subnautica | older | $29.99 | 341,390 97% | 10M | $307M (exactly $307,148,583) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Subnautica: Below Zero | older | $29.99 | 99,384 90% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $89,415,785) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy | older | $59.99 | 35,397 93% | 1.1M | $64M (exactly $63,703,981) | Eidos-Montréal |
| | The Planet Crafter | older | $23.99 | 68,855 96% | 2.1M | $50M (exactly $49,554,944) | Miju Games |
| | SPORE™ | older | $19.99 | 66,871 92% | 2.0M | $40M (exactly $40,102,539) | Maxis™ |
 | Saints Row IV: Re-Elected | older | $19.99 | 57,525 87% | 1.7M | $34M (exactly $34,497,742) | Deep Silver Volition |
 | Prey | older | $29.99 | 37,759 90% | 1.1M | $34M (exactly $33,971,772) | Arkane Studios |
 | Crysis Remastered | older | $29.99 | 16,822 77% | 505k | $15M (exactly $15,134,753) | Crytek |
 | Breathedge | older | $24.99 | 14,697 82% | 441k | $11M (exactly $11,018,341) | RedRuins Softworks |
 | Crysis 2 - Maximum Edition | older | $29.99 | 9,352 86% | 281k | $8.4M (exactly $8,413,994) | Crytek Studios |
 | Nuclear Nightmare | · EA | $6.99 | 15,403 81% | 462k | $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) | BG Productions |
 | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
 | Mosaic of the Strange | $12.99 | 226 92% | 6.8k | $88k (exactly $88,072) | Mark Ffrench | |
 | Shinehill | $10.99 | 265 95% | 8.0k | $87k (exactly $87,370) | Peach Bite | |
 | Space Chef | $14.99 | 105 73% | 3.2k | $47k (exactly $47,218) | Blue Goo Games | |
 | ASTROBOTANICA | · EA | $19.99 | 76 59% | 2.3k | $46k (exactly $45,577) | Space Goblin Studio |
 | Warspace 2 | $17.99 | 83 59% | 2.5k | $45k (exactly $44,795) | Magic Game Art | |
 | Hiraeth | · EA | $19.99 | 25 64% | 750 | $15k (exactly $14,992) | Jade Horse |
 | Alien Apocalypse | · EA | $17.99 | 27 48% | 810 | $15k (exactly $14,572) | Umbu Games |
 | Gas Giant Voyage | $7.99 | 60 91% | 1.8k | $14k (exactly $14,382) | 1023 Technology |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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