Do I ship it?

GamesOpen WorldOpen World + Time Travel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time-Travel Open World game?

Open World + Time Travel

Only 10 developers shipped a Time-Travel Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Enigma of Fear, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×8.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 8 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $3.1k against a market of $1.5k. 35 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 700% on the market, 35 announced, ×8.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Open World + Time Travel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Open World + Time Travel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,055)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,066)
Top 5% $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 48
Announced 35
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 700% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Time Travel
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Open World
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 3,318 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Open World with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $634k · 17 announced
  2. + 4 Player LocalFair14 devs · median $82k · 20 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $23k · 21 announced
  4. + TrainsFair27 devs · median $21k · 25 announced
  5. + FMVFair11 devs · median $14k · 13 announced
  6. + GothicFair25 devs · median $5.4k · 32 announced
  7. + MarsFair12 devs · median $2.2k · 15 announced
  8. + TanksFair9 devs · median $1.3k · 11 announced
  9. + FaithLong shot11 devs · median $716 · 14 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds13 devs · median $1.8M · 38 announced
  11. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  12. + Co-op CampaignPoor odds17 devs · median $267k · 65 announced

All 240 pairs on the Open World page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Quantum Break older $39.99 23,141 86% 694k $28M (exactly $27,762,258) Remedy Entertainment
The Forgotten City older $24.99 11,159 96% 335k $8.4M (exactly $8,365,902) Modern Storyteller
FINAL FANTASY® XIII-2 older $19.99 5,136 58% 154k $3.1M (exactly $3,080,059) Square Enix
Enigma of Fear $29.99 3,045 95% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,739,586) Dumativa, Cellbit
Prince of Persia: Warrior Within™ older $9.99 3,933 82% 118k $1.2M (exactly $1,178,720) Ubisoft
No Time · EA older $12.99 2,117 97% 64k $825k (exactly $824,995) Lost in Days Studio
River Town Factory older $14.99 1,277 88% 38k $574k (exactly $574,267) iFAction Studio
Grand Emprise: Time Travel Survival older $19.99 807 69% 24k $484k (exactly $483,958) Tbjbu2
Mosaic of the Strange $12.99 226 92% 6.8k $88k (exactly $88,072) Mark Ffrench
NOSTALGIC TRAIN older $11.99 187 76% 5.6k $67k (exactly $67,264) Tatamibeya 畳部屋
Paradox Guardians · EA $12.99 13 38% 390 $5.1k (exactly $5,066) Paraguard
Macht: Cosmic Engine · EA $24.99 5 80% 150 $3.7k (exactly $3,748) Kestro Games
Quantum Loop $5.99 17 100% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) slashslash, Declan Carveth
Blue Hill Wendigo $6.99 4 75% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Merchant Of Stories
乾坤玺•明 $8.99 2 0% 60 $539 (exactly $539) 玉刃工作室
Aeon Tempus $4.99 3 66% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Hüseyin Akkaya
Oldish Stuff · EA $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Mergy Games
UKNON Jones & Guynelk 2 $7.00 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Guynelk ROSAMONT

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.