Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Driving

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Driving game?

Driving

Of 784 developers who shipped a Driving game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,312 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2193 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 1,312 games are announced against 457 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 1,312 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 784
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $2.2k → $2.7k → $2.7k → $2.7k → $1.8k → $1.9k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 784
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,767)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,377,200)
Developers, 2 yr 784
Released games 2,522
Announced 1,312
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 660,626 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 403 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,312 games are announced against 457 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Driving

101 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Driving + Split Screen Fair $6.0k 54 devs
  2. Driving + Idler Fair $5.5k 16 devs
  3. Driving + Survival Horror Fair $4.9k 20 devs
  4. Driving + Interactive Fiction Fair $1.2k 12 devs
  5. Driving + Logic Fair $958 30 devs
  6. Driving + Hidden Object Fair $897 26 devs
  7. Online Co-Op + Driving Poor odds $48k 82 devs
  8. Automation + Driving Poor odds $44k 24 devs
  9. Driving + Base Building Poor odds $32k 25 devs
  10. Co-op + Driving Poor odds $26k 90 devs
  11. Driving + Trading Poor odds $24k 23 devs
  12. Driving + Building Poor odds $23k 86 devs
  13. Driving + Job Simulator Poor odds $17k 22 devs
  14. Driving + RPG Poor odds $13k 42 devs
  15. Driving + Management Poor odds $13k 116 devs
  16. Driving + Crafting Poor odds $13k 49 devs
  17. Driving + Life Sim Poor odds $12k 88 devs
  18. Immersive Sim + Driving Poor odds $12k 181 devs
  19. Driving + Transportation Poor odds $12k 79 devs
  20. Driving + Sandbox Poor odds $10k 129 devs
  21. Driving + Level Editor Poor odds $9.8k 29 devs
  22. Driving + Economy Poor odds $8.6k 61 devs
  23. Driving + Resource Management Poor odds $8.4k 52 devs
  24. Open World + Driving Poor odds $8.1k 208 devs
  25. Driving + Walking Simulator Poor odds $6.9k 28 devs
  26. Driving + Stealth Poor odds $6.6k 18 devs
  27. Driving + Exploration Poor odds $6.6k 191 devs
  28. Driving + Inventory Management Poor odds $6.6k 34 devs
  29. Driving + Incremental Poor odds $6.6k 8 devs
  30. Driving + Perma Death Poor odds $5.7k 8 devs
  31. Action RPG + Driving Poor odds $5.4k 15 devs
  32. Driving + Investigation Poor odds $5.3k 12 devs
  33. Driving + Simulation Poor odds $5.1k 389 devs
  34. Driving + Asynchronous Multiplayer Poor odds $5.1k 10 devs
  35. FPS + Driving Poor odds $4.8k 56 devs
  36. Bikes + Driving Poor odds $4.3k 14 devs
  37. Driving + Survival Poor odds $4.0k 58 devs
  38. Automobile Sim + Driving Poor odds $2.9k 306 devs
  39. Driving + Time Attack Poor odds $2.8k 20 devs
  40. PvP + Driving Poor odds $2.7k 116 devs
  41. Character Customization + Driving Poor odds $2.7k 99 devs
  42. Driving + Sports Poor odds $2.5k 148 devs
  43. Driving + Local Multiplayer Poor odds $2.5k 52 devs
  44. Driving + Real Time Tactics Poor odds $2.4k 13 devs
  45. Driving + Roguelike Poor odds $2.4k 24 devs
  46. Driving + Strategy Poor odds $2.2k 71 devs
  47. Third-Person Shooter + Driving Poor odds $2.2k 42 devs
  48. Driving + 4 Player Local Poor odds $2.1k 30 devs
  49. Driving + Adventure Poor odds $2.1k 209 devs
  50. Driving + Wargame Poor odds $2.0k 11 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M Euro Truck Simulator 2 2012 · $454M BeamNG.drive 2015 · EA · $291M Need for Speed™ Heat 2020 · $271M Forza Horizon 6 2026 · $182M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
BeamNG.drive · EA older $24.99 388,236 97% 12M $291M (exactly $291,060,529) BeamNG
Need for Speed™ Heat older $69.99 128,933 84% 3.9M $271M (exactly $270,720,620) Ghost Games
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Teardown older $29.99 126,563 95% 3.8M $114M (exactly $113,868,731) Tuxedo Labs
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
American Truck Simulator older $19.99 165,692 97% 5.0M $99M (exactly $99,365,492) SCS Software
Assetto Corsa older $19.99 136,067 92% 4.1M $82M (exactly $81,599,380) Kunos Simulazioni
My Summer Car $14.99 108,503 94% 3.3M $49M (exactly $48,793,799) Amistech Games
F1® 25 $49.99 25,395 87% 762k $38M (exactly $38,084,882) Codemasters
Tokyo Xtreme Racer $49.99 15,284 93% 459k $23M (exactly $22,921,415) Genki Co., Ltd.
Assetto Corsa EVO · EA $39.99 16,545 60% 496k $20M (exactly $19,849,036) KUNOS Simulazioni
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
RV There Yet? $7.99 72,732 90% 2.2M $17M (exactly $17,433,860) Nuggets Entertainment
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.