Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Base Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Base Building Driving game?

Driving + Base Building

Of 25 developers who shipped a Base Building Driving game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $32k, ×50 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×25841 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 82 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 50.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 82 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Base Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $51k → $3.6M → $355k → $1.7M → $13k → $2.7k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Base Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Median $32k (exactly $31,566)
Top 25% $369k (exactly $368,916)
Top 5% $16M (exactly $16,228,342)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 68
Announced 82
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $13.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving, Base Building; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Simulation, Crafting
Price point
$13.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
9 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 313,982 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.1k, median $32k, 1 in 4 over $360k, 1 in 20 over $16M.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.1k. 4 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Pacific Drive older $29.99 21,547 83% 646k $19M (exactly $19,385,836) Ironwood Studios
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Gas Station Simulator older $19.99 23,839 88% 715k $14M (exactly $14,296,248) DRAGO entertainment
F1® Manager 2024 older $34.99 5,554 83% 167k $5.8M (exactly $5,830,034) Frontier Developments
Expeditions: A MudRunner Game older $39.99 3,000 59% 90k $3.6M (exactly $3,599,100) Saber Interactive
ContractVille $9.99 5,593 80% 168k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,222) MYM Games Studios
Outbound $24.99 1,788 73% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,340,464) Square Glade Games
Landlord's Super older $19.99 1,442 80% 43k $865k (exactly $864,767) Minskworks
Outbreak Island · EA $14.99 955 78% 29k $429k (exactly $429,464) Tiny Magicians
Dirty Business · EA $14.99 906 75% 27k $407k (exactly $407,428) Plan Dirty Games
Fuel Harvest Together $13.99 879 69% 26k $369k (exactly $368,916) Say2Sun
It's Only Money $24.99 473 78% 14k $355k (exactly $354,608) Usual Suspects Studios
The Boss Gangster: Criminal Empire · EA $18.99 385 81% 12k $219k (exactly $219,334) BEF GAMES
Factory Outlet Simulator $10.99 537 74% 16k $177k (exactly $177,049) PISHO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.