Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Driving

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Driving FPS?

FPS + Driving

Of 56 developers who shipped a Driving FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 104 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×3.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $10M, ×6883 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 104 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 104 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Driving
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 56
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $51k → $38k → $3.1k → $10k → $19k → $29k → $32k (still earning) → $598 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Driving: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 56
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 25% $60k (exactly $60,014)
Top 5% $10M (exactly $10,310,721)
Developers, 2 yr 56
Released games 160
Announced 104
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Driving; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Open World
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 363,975 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $60k, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 7 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 104 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Schedule I 2025 · EA · $173M Brick Rigs 2023 · $32M Just Cause 4 Reloaded 2018 · $28M Drive Beyond Horizons 2025 · EA · $13M Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator 2023 · $12M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Brick Rigs older $19.99 53,749 95% 1.6M $32M (exactly $32,233,275) Fluppisoft GmbH
Just Cause 4 Reloaded older $39.64 23,358 63% 701k $28M (exactly $27,777,334) Avalanche Studios
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons
Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator older $24.99 16,166 80% 485k $12M (exactly $12,119,650) Nils Jakrins
Car For Sale Simulator $16.99 20,229 78% 607k $10M (exactly $10,310,721) Red Axe Games
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
STAR WARS™: Battlefront Classic Collection older $35.01 7,125 23% 214k $7.5M (exactly $7,483,388) Aspyr
Car Dealer Simulator $19.99 9,831 88% 295k $5.9M (exactly $5,895,651) Garage Monkeys
HROT older $19.99 5,299 96% 159k $3.2M (exactly $3,177,810) Spytihněv
Crime Simulator $14.99 6,244 82% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) CookieDev
Car Service Together · EA $19.99 3,589 79% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,323) V12 Studio
Way of the Hunter 2 · EA $34.99 1,534 73% 46k $1.6M (exactly $1,610,240) Nine Rocks Games
Car Dealership Simulator 2 · EA $14.99 2,374 69% 71k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,588) Quadfix Games
Tank Squad $19.99 847 70% 25k $508k (exactly $507,946) DeGenerals S.A.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.