Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Stealth

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Driving Stealth game?

Driving + Stealth

Only 18 developers shipped a Driving Stealth game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Schedule I, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $170M, ×275918 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 35 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 35 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Stealth
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $2.8M → $6.3k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Stealth: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,626)
Top 25% $203k (exactly $203,207)
Top 5% $173M (exactly $173,276,718)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 37
Announced 35
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving, Stealth; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 297,809 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $170M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 4 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Watch_Dogs™ older $19.99 49,193 79% 1.5M $30M (exactly $29,501,042) Ubisoft
Thief Simulator 2 older $19.99 6,568 87% 197k $3.9M (exactly $3,938,830) CookieDev, Ultimate Games S.A.
Crime Simulator $14.99 6,244 82% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) CookieDev
Thief Simulator VR older $19.99 1,368 69% 41k $820k (exactly $820,390) GameBoom VR
Used Cars Simulator · EA $19.99 1,147 79% 34k $688k (exactly $687,856) DreamWay Games
American Theft 80s older $19.99 1,029 73% 31k $617k (exactly $617,091) Noble Muffins
Dirty Business · EA $14.99 906 75% 27k $407k (exactly $407,428) Plan Dirty Games
Highway Police Simulator $27.99 242 30% 7.3k $203k (exactly $203,207) Z-Software
[Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護 older $4.99 431 80% 13k $65k (exactly $64,521) Chilla's Art
Odd Remedy · EA $9.99 159 87% 4.8k $48k (exactly $47,652) Oddscure
The Brewline $9.99 110 84% 3.3k $33k (exactly $32,967) Alcora Games
Schedule Store Simulator · EA $14.99 28 92% 840 $13k (exactly $12,592) Alkame Games
HorrorDriven: A story for the road $16.99 13 92% 390 $6.6k (exactly $6,626) InputAlfa
CyberpunkXXX $9.99 21 33% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) GAMERFLEX Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.