Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Driving game?

Driving + Crafting

Of 49 developers who shipped a Crafting Driving game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 134 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×20 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.1M, ×3389 the market median. Revenue is up 935% on the market; 134 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 935% on the market, 134 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $143k → $148k → $10k → $12k → $5.1k → $35k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Median $13k (exactly $12,592)
Top 25% $114k (exactly $114,224)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,128,292)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 119
Announced 134
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 935% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving, Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Simulation, Open World
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 320,132 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.7k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $2.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 9 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 134 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Car Mechanic Simulator 2018 older $19.99 48,366 91% 1.5M $29M (exactly $29,005,090) Red Dot Games
Pacific Drive older $29.99 21,547 83% 646k $19M (exactly $19,385,836) Ironwood Studios
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
Cheap Car Repair $19.69 3,603 91% 108k $2.1M (exactly $2,128,292) Little Dog Games
Farmer's Dynasty - Final Harvest Edition older $19.99 3,484 77% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,089,355) UMEO Studios
Construction Simulator 2015 older $14.99 4,597 79% 138k $2.1M (exactly $2,067,271) weltenbauer. Software Entwicklung GmbH
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
Lumberjack's Dynasty older $19.99 2,358 72% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,414,093) UMEO Studios
Outbound $24.99 1,788 73% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,340,464) Square Glade Games
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Outbreak Island · EA $14.99 955 78% 29k $429k (exactly $429,464) Tiny Magicians
Dirty Business · EA $14.99 906 75% 27k $407k (exactly $407,428) Plan Dirty Games
Fuel Harvest Together $13.99 879 69% 26k $369k (exactly $368,916) Say2Sun
Underground Garage $14.99 646 63% 19k $291k (exactly $290,506) BeardedBrothers.games
The Boss Gangster: Criminal Empire · EA $18.99 385 81% 12k $219k (exactly $219,334) BEF GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.