Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Driving game?

Driving + Simulation

Of 389 developers who shipped a Simulation Driving game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 606 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.1k, ×8.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $3.3M, ×5318 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 606 games are announced against 209 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 606 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 389
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $7.2k → $4.5k → $4.2k → $12k → $3.5k → $5.4k (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 389
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $5.1k (exactly $5,124)
Top 25% $74k (exactly $73,588)
Top 5% $3.3M (exactly $3,339,664)
Developers, 2 yr 389
Released games 1,305
Announced 606
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving, Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Automobile Sim, Immersive Sim, Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 600,670 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.1k, 1 in 4 over $73k, 1 in 20 over $3.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 219 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 606 games are announced against 209 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
BeamNG.drive · EA older $24.99 388,236 97% 12M $291M (exactly $291,060,529) BeamNG
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Teardown older $29.99 126,563 95% 3.8M $114M (exactly $113,868,731) Tuxedo Labs
Need for Speed™ Unbound older $69.99 49,862 61% 1.5M $105M (exactly $104,695,241) Criterion Games
American Truck Simulator older $19.99 165,692 97% 5.0M $99M (exactly $99,365,492) SCS Software
Assetto Corsa older $19.99 136,067 92% 4.1M $82M (exactly $81,599,380) Kunos Simulazioni
The Crew™ 2 older $29.99 86,533 78% 2.6M $78M (exactly $77,853,740) Ivory Tower
My Summer Car $14.99 108,503 94% 3.3M $49M (exactly $48,793,799) Amistech Games
F1® 25 $49.99 25,395 87% 762k $38M (exactly $38,084,882) Codemasters
Assetto Corsa EVO · EA $39.99 16,545 60% 496k $20M (exactly $19,849,036) KUNOS Simulazioni
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Drive Beyond Horizons · EA $24.99 17,903 77% 537k $13M (exactly $13,421,879) Drive Beyond Horizons
Car For Sale Simulator $16.99 20,229 78% 607k $10M (exactly $10,310,721) Red Axe Games
The Bus $39.99 7,831 73% 235k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,851) TML-Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.