Do I ship it?

GamesDrivingDriving + Building

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Driving game?

Driving + Building

Of 86 developers who shipped a Building Driving game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 147 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $23k, ×37 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $4.8M, ×7751 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 147 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 37.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 147 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Driving + Building
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 86
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $51k → $143k → $148k → $50k → $20k → $8.6k → $60k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Driving + Building: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 86
Bottom 30% $3.6k (exactly $3,597)
Median $23k (exactly $23,251)
Top 25% $219k (exactly $219,334)
Top 5% $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377)
Developers, 2 yr 86
Released games 233
Announced 147
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand
Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Driving, Building; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Open World, Sandbox
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 456,552 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $23k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $4.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 6 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 147 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Driving with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Split ScreenFair54 devs · median $6.0k · 56 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair35 devs · median $5.9k · 43 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $5.5k · 18 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorFair20 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  5. + World War IIFair8 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  6. + MusicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  7. + ThrillerFair18 devs · median $2.0k · 21 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  9. + LogicFair30 devs · median $958 · 29 announced
  10. + Hidden ObjectFair26 devs · median $897 · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds82 devs · median $48k · 157 announced
  12. + AutomationPoor odds24 devs · median $44k · 36 announced

All 130 pairs on the Driving page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
My Summer Car $14.99 108,503 94% 3.3M $49M (exactly $48,793,799) Amistech Games
Brick Rigs older $19.99 53,749 95% 1.6M $32M (exactly $32,233,275) Fluppisoft GmbH
Car Mechanic Simulator 2018 older $19.99 48,366 91% 1.5M $29M (exactly $29,005,090) Red Dot Games
Pacific Drive older $29.99 21,547 83% 646k $19M (exactly $19,385,836) Ironwood Studios
Train Simulator Classic older $29.99 19,461 73% 584k $18M (exactly $17,509,062) Dovetail Games
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Gas Station Simulator older $19.99 23,839 88% 715k $14M (exactly $14,296,248) DRAGO entertainment
Mon Bazou $15.99 19,922 97% 598k $9.6M (exactly $9,556,583) Santa Goat
Gold Mining Simulator older $19.99 15,132 72% 454k $9.1M (exactly $9,074,660) Code Horizon
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
My Garage $19.99 4,010 90% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,404,797) Viking Game Studio
Car Service Together · EA $19.99 3,589 79% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,323) V12 Studio
Cheap Car Repair $19.69 3,603 91% 108k $2.1M (exactly $2,128,292) Little Dog Games
ContractVille $9.99 5,593 80% 168k $1.7M (exactly $1,676,222) MYM Games Studios
Get To Work $12.99 3,456 88% 104k $1.3M (exactly $1,346,803) Isto Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.