Do I ship it?

Games › Immersive Sim › Immersive Sim + Driving

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Driving Immersive Sim?

Immersive Sim + Driving

Of 181 developers who shipped a Driving Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 260 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×7.8 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.9M, ×2626 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 260 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 260 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Immersive Sim + Driving
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 181
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $22k → $5.1k → $22k → $21k → $4.6k → $10k (still earning) → $9.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Immersive Sim + Driving: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 181
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,887)
Median $12k (exactly $11,743)
Top 25% $115k (exactly $115,008)
Top 5% $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488)
Developers, 2 yr 181
Released games 441
Announced 260
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Immersive Sim
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Immersive Sim, Driving; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Automobile Sim, Open World
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 108,952 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.9k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.9k. 6 in 10 of the 110 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 260 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds112 devs · median $63k · 58 announced
  2. + Trading Card GameStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  3. + MinigamesStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  4. + WesternStrong odds17 devs · median $4.4k · 14 announced
  5. + BoxingStrong odds16 devs · median $2.7k · 12 announced
  6. + Job SimulatorFair152 devs · median $20k · 180 announced
  7. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  8. + Dating SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  9. + RomanceFair254 devs · median $12k · 266 announced
  10. + LGBTQ+Fair87 devs · median $11k · 93 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair399 devs · median $7.8k · 453 announced
  12. + Split ScreenFair12 devs · median $6.0k · 14 announced

All 219 pairs on the Immersive Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Euro Truck Simulator 2 2012 · $454M American Truck Simulator 2016 · $99M SnowRunner 2021 · $42M Car Mechanic Simulator 2021 2021 · $28M Forza Motorsport 2023 · $26M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
American Truck Simulator older $19.99 165,692 97% 5.0M $99M (exactly $99,365,492) SCS Software
SnowRunner older $29.99 46,343 90% 1.4M $42M (exactly $41,694,797) Saber Interactive
Car Mechanic Simulator 2021 older $24.99 36,950 95% 1.1M $28M (exactly $27,701,415) Red Dot Games
Forza Motorsport older $69.99 12,148 51% 364k $26M (exactly $25,507,156) Turn 10
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
RoadCraft $39.99 13,527 74% 406k $16M (exactly $16,228,342) Saber Interactive
Derail Valley · EA older $39.99 9,442 96% 283k $11M (exactly $11,327,567) Altfuture
Car For Sale Simulator $16.99 20,229 78% 607k $10M (exactly $10,310,721) Red Axe Games
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
Assetto Corsa Rally · EA $29.99 8,757 87% 263k $7.9M (exactly $7,878,673) Supernova Games Studios
The Precinct $29.99 7,837 87% 235k $7.1M (exactly $7,050,949) Fallen Tree Games Ltd
Car Dealer Simulator $19.99 9,831 88% 295k $5.9M (exactly $5,895,651) Garage Monkeys
SimRail - The Railway Simulator $34.99 5,307 85% 159k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,758) SimRail S.A.
Railroads Online $29.99 5,410 75% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,867,377) Stefan Kelnberger
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.