Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Demon game?

Demons

Of 1,118 developers who shipped a Demon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,634 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×489 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 1,634 games are announced against 628 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 1,634 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Demons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,118
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.9k → $1.5k → $1.6k → $2.1k → $1.2k → $1.7k → $1.2k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Demons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,118
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,073)
Top 5% $232k (exactly $232,495)
Developers, 2 yr 1,118
Released games 3,150
Announced 1,634
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Demons
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 128,523 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 646 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,634 games are announced against 628 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Demons

119 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Tactical RPG + Demons Poor odds $1.5k 20 devs
  2. Adventure + Demons Poor odds $1.4k 574 devs
  3. 2D Platformer + Demons Poor odds $1.4k 71 devs
  4. Roguelite + Demons Poor odds $1.3k 150 devs
  5. Character Customization + Demons Poor odds $1.3k 57 devs
  6. Sandbox + Demons Poor odds $1.3k 22 devs
  7. Card Game + Demons Poor odds $1.3k 50 devs
  8. Turn-Based Tactics + Demons Poor odds $1.3k 48 devs
  9. Deckbuilding + Demons Poor odds $1.3k 39 devs
  10. Survival Horror + Demons Poor odds $1.3k 236 devs
  11. Choose Your Own Adventure + Demons Poor odds $1.2k 69 devs
  12. Physics + Demons Poor odds $1.2k 44 devs
  13. Procedural Generation + Demons Poor odds $1.2k 66 devs
  14. Puzzle Platformer + Demons Poor odds $1.2k 30 devs
  15. Traditional Roguelike + Demons Poor odds $1.2k 14 devs
  16. Beat 'em up + Demons Poor odds $1.2k 25 devs
  17. Shooter + Demons Poor odds $1.1k 168 devs
  18. Dungeon Crawler + Demons Poor odds $1.1k 109 devs
  19. Turn-Based Combat + Demons Poor odds $1.1k 60 devs
  20. Roguelike + Demons Poor odds $1.1k 162 devs
  21. FPS + Demons Poor odds $1.1k 172 devs
  22. Action + Demons Poor odds $1.0k 607 devs
  23. Interactive Fiction + Demons Poor odds $1.0k 81 devs
  24. PvP + Demons Poor odds $1.0k 30 devs
  25. 3D Platformer + Demons Poor odds $955 45 devs
  26. Open World + Demons Poor odds $900 41 devs
  27. Hidden Object + Demons Poor odds $899 105 devs
  28. Combat + Demons Poor odds $898 191 devs
  29. Tower Defense + Demons Poor odds $898 43 devs
  30. Resource Management + Demons Poor odds $898 39 devs
  31. Top-Down Shooter + Demons Poor odds $897 37 devs
  32. Real Time Tactics + Demons Poor odds $839 24 devs
  33. Auto Battler + Demons Poor odds $839 20 devs
  34. God Game + Demons Poor odds $839 7 devs
  35. Arcade + Demons Poor odds $838 126 devs
  36. Action-Adventure + Demons Poor odds $809 294 devs
  37. Survival + Demons Poor odds $779 141 devs
  38. Card Battler + Demons Poor odds $776 32 devs
  39. Action RPG + Demons Poor odds $750 131 devs
  40. Gun Customization + Demons Poor odds $748 14 devs
  41. Tabletop + Demons Poor odds $746 18 devs
  42. Strategy + Demons Poor odds $719 180 devs
  43. Stealth + Demons Poor odds $719 98 devs
  44. PvE + Demons Poor odds $718 163 devs
  45. Action Roguelike + Demons Poor odds $718 153 devs
  46. Looter Shooter + Demons Poor odds $657 9 devs
  47. Score Attack + Demons Poor odds $629 52 devs
  48. Point & Click + Demons Poor odds $599 52 devs
  49. Mystery Dungeon + Demons Poor odds $599 49 devs
  50. Perma Death + Demons Poor odds $599 49 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Phasmophobia 2020 · EA · $410M DOOM Eternal 2020 · $169M Devil May Cry 5 2019 · $107M DOOM 2016 · $93M Diablo® IV 2023 · $88M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Phasmophobia · EA older $19.99 684,009 94% 21M $410M (exactly $410,200,197) Kinetic Games
DOOM Eternal older $29.99 187,483 91% 5.6M $169M (exactly $168,678,455) id Software
Devil May Cry 5 older $29.99 119,108 96% 3.6M $107M (exactly $107,161,468) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
DOOM older $19.99 155,340 95% 4.7M $93M (exactly $93,157,398) id Software
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles older $59.99 16,545 87% 496k $30M (exactly $29,776,036) CyberConnect2
Mortal Shell II $49.99 18,644 79% 559k $28M (exactly $27,960,407) Cold Symmetry
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
Ghost Watchers $14.99 12,729 86% 382k $5.7M (exactly $5,724,231) Renderise
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles 2 $59.99 2,879 83% 86k $5.2M (exactly $5,181,336) CyberConnect2
Look Outside $9.99 13,586 98% 408k $4.1M (exactly $4,071,724) Francis Coulombe
Legacy of Kain™ Soul Reaver 1&2 Remastered $29.99 3,042 90% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,736,887) Aspyr, Crystal Dynamics
Hell Clock $19.99 3,535 82% 106k $2.1M (exactly $2,119,940) Rogue Snail
NINJA GAIDEN: Ragebound $24.99 2,500 92% 75k $1.9M (exactly $1,874,250) The Game Kitchen

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.