Do I ship it?

GamesChoose Your Own AdventureChoose Your Own Adventure + Demons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Demon Choose Your Own Adventure game?

Choose Your Own Adventure + Demons

Of 69 developers who shipped a Demon Choose Your Own Adventure game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $78k, ×166 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 78 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 78 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Choose Your Own Adventure + Demons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 69
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $3.2k → $479 → $1.5k → $1.7k → $3.1k → $2.5k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Choose Your Own Adventure + Demons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 69
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,086)
Top 5% $79k (exactly $78,719)
Developers, 2 yr 69
Released games 173
Announced 78
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Choose Your Own Adventure
effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
Demons
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Choose Your Own Adventure; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 4,387 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $78k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Choose Your Own Adventure with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RhythmStrong odds23 devs · median $3.3k · 18 announced
  2. + FMVFair79 devs · median $54k · 74 announced
  3. + FlightFair9 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced
  4. + SportsFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced
  5. + Word GameFair55 devs · median $1.4k · 65 announced
  6. + MilitaryFair23 devs · median $898 · 24 announced
  7. + Score AttackFair14 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  8. + IdlerFair41 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  9. + GamblingFair10 devs · median $494 · 14 announced
  10. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  11. + 3D FighterLong shot17 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  12. + NavalPoor odds9 devs · median $14k · 16 announced

All 198 pairs on the Choose Your Own Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BAD END THEATER older $9.99 8,877 97% 266k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,437) NomnomNami
DevilConnection $16.66 1,951 98% 59k $975k (exactly $975,110) ChaoGames
Demonheart older $19.99 714 89% 21k $428k (exactly $428,186) Rolling Crown
Forbidden Fantasy $6.99 1,459 88% 44k $306k (exactly $305,952) OppaiMan Studios
Funbag Fantasy older $44.99 160 95% 4.8k $216k (exactly $215,952) Waffle
Kuroinu 2 Redux older $24.99 167 80% 5.0k $125k (exactly $125,200) Liquid
Purrfect Apawcalypse: Love at Furst Bite older $4.99 826 98% 25k $124k (exactly $123,652) Denny Truong, Andy Schneider
Deliverance older $12.99 287 79% 8.6k $112k (exactly $111,844) 1Thousand
Demonheart: The Cursed Trial $24.99 115 90% 3.5k $86k (exactly $86,216) Rolling Crown
Heart of the Forest $12.99 202 70% 6.1k $79k (exactly $78,719) Trapped Predator
Karigurashi Ren'ai: Living on Borrowed Love $29.99 76 92% 2.3k $68k (exactly $68,377) ASa Project
Thousand Hells: The Underworld Heists $24.99 76 78% 2.3k $57k (exactly $56,977) A Sharp
Game of Hearts $9.99 180 93% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,946) SparkHG
Succubless $11.99 146 67% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,516) Supa Doge
108 Silly Ways to Die $10.99 115 73% 3.5k $38k (exactly $37,916) SEED Studio
Morningstar: Book of the Fallen $14.99 67 94% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Droid Productions

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.