Do I ship it?

GamesRoguelikeRoguelike + Demons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Demon Roguelike?

Roguelike + Demons

Of 162 developers who shipped a Demon Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 268 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×2.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×218 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 268 games are announced against 94 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 268 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelike + Demons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 162
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.5k → $897 → $2.1k → $1.3k → $1.1k → $2.2k → $599 (still earning) → $420 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelike + Demons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 162
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,077)
Top 25% $7.7k (exactly $7,670)
Top 5% $103k (exactly $103,431)
Developers, 2 yr 162
Released games 349
Announced 268
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Demons
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 44,637 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 75 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 268 games are announced against 94 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair85 devs · median $5.2k · 103 announced
  2. + 6DOFFair15 devs · median $4.7k · 7 announced
  3. + Grand StrategyFair18 devs · median $3.3k · 22 announced
  4. + VampiresFair59 devs · median $3.1k · 58 announced
  5. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.9k · 17 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair60 devs · median $1.8k · 85 announced
  7. + SuperheroFair12 devs · median $1.1k · 17 announced
  8. + IdlerFair160 devs · median $1.0k · 206 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair841 devs · median $959 · 1,066 announced
  10. + Walking SimulatorFair29 devs · median $718 · 28 announced
  11. + 2D PlatformerFair264 devs · median $599 · 320 announced
  12. + Traditional RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced

All 231 pairs on the Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Halls of Torment $6.66 30,752 95% 923k $6.1M (exactly $6,144,250) Chasing Carrots
Book of Demons older $24.99 8,010 91% 240k $6.0M (exactly $6,005,097) Thing Trunk
Dead Estate older $14.99 5,778 95% 173k $2.6M (exactly $2,598,367) Milkbar Lads
Project Warlock older $12.00 4,691 87% 141k $1.7M (exactly $1,688,760) Buckshot Software
Jupiter Hell older $24.99 1,795 91% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,345,712) ChaosForge
HellSign older $19.99 2,147 67% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,287,556) Ballistic Interactive
Last Evil older $9.99 3,559 94% 107k $1.1M (exactly $1,066,632) Flametorch
33 Immortals $14.89 2,130 72% 64k $951k (exactly $951,471) Thunder Lotus
Grind Survivors $12.99 1,332 69% 40k $519k (exactly $519,080) Pushka Studios
Dragon Is Dead $19.99 661 75% 20k $396k (exactly $396,402) TeamSuneat
Wartorn $34.99 130 73% 3.9k $136k (exactly $136,461) Stray Kite Studios
Runeborn $13.99 284 80% 8.5k $119k (exactly $119,195) iDream Interactive
Holy Shoot $12.99 267 78% 8.0k $104k (exactly $104,050) Tale Era Interactive
Jupiter Hell Classic · EA $14.99 230 95% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) ChaosForge
Lazy Witch's Factory · EA $15.99 204 91% 6.1k $98k (exactly $97,859) MELTCLOCK.Inc

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.