Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Demons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Demon Physics game?

Physics + Demons

Of 44 developers who shipped a Demon Physics game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×557 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 57 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 57 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Demons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $208 → $5.7k → $748 → $1.3k → $1.7k → $628 (still earning) → $7.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Demons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,703)
Top 5% $350k (exactly $349,750)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 87
Announced 57
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Demons
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,804 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Baby In Yellow · EA older $8.99 2,340 96% 70k $631k (exactly $631,098) Team Terrible
Trench Tales · EA $24.99 601 69% 18k $451k (exactly $450,570) Talking Drums
Priest Simulator: Vampire Show $19.99 735 94% 22k $441k (exactly $440,779) Asmodev
Twin Shot Deluxe $9.99 1,167 95% 35k $350k (exactly $349,750) Nitrome Limited
Obsideo · EA older $11.99 797 61% 24k $287k (exactly $286,681) Kyle's Garage
FUTA RUNNER: Big Dick Edition $6.99 733 66% 22k $154k (exactly $153,710) Evil Boobs Cult
Nevrosa: Escape older $14.99 103 79% 3.1k $46k (exactly $46,319) GexagonVR
Lost Luminosity $3.99 235 83% 7.1k $28k (exactly $28,130) Ember Wing Games
SOMNI · EA older $14.99 58 60% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) Antler
GON: God Of Nothing $7.99 63 80% 1.9k $15k (exactly $15,101) BlackBoneGames
GhostCatcher · EA $8.99 45 51% 1.4k $12k (exactly $12,136) SilverLuna Rift
Left By Angels $2.99 124 84% 3.7k $11k (exactly $11,123) Street Art Studios
Slime Soup $4.99 50 90% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) VANDERMAESEN GAMES
Malignant Survivors 2 $4.70 51 49% 1.5k $7.2k (exactly $7,191) Eren Aydin, Serhat Yücekaya

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.