Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › City Builder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a City Builder?

City Builder

Of 815 developers who shipped a City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,486 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×6.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2675 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,486 games are announced against 467 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,486 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 815
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.3k → $6.0k → $4.4k → $5.4k → $6.7k → $3.6k → $3.9k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 815
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,075)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $47,846)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740)
Developers, 2 yr 815
Released games 2,371
Announced 1,486
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 230,046 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $47k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 427 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,486 games are announced against 467 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with City Builder

31 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. City Builder + Rome Poor odds $423k 9 devs
  2. City Builder + Horror Poor odds $157k 10 devs
  3. City Builder + Alternate History Poor odds $146k 17 devs
  4. City Builder + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $71k 40 devs
  5. City Builder + Historical Poor odds $60k 86 devs
  6. City Builder + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $54k 20 devs
  7. City Builder + Science Poor odds $40k 11 devs
  8. City Builder + Mythology Poor odds $19k 18 devs
  9. City Builder + Trains Poor odds $16k 32 devs
  10. City Builder + Demons Poor odds $13k 12 devs
  11. City Builder + Dragons Poor odds $12k 8 devs
  12. City Builder + Dystopian Poor odds $11k 10 devs
  13. City Builder + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $9.4k 25 devs
  14. City Builder + Zombies Poor odds $8.7k 16 devs
  15. City Builder + Aliens Poor odds $8.6k 15 devs
  16. City Builder + Capitalism Poor odds $7.7k 72 devs
  17. City Builder + Fantasy Poor odds $6.0k 161 devs
  18. City Builder + Magic Poor odds $5.7k 40 devs
  19. City Builder + Modern Poor odds $5.4k 34 devs
  20. City Builder + Military Poor odds $4.8k 43 devs
  21. City Builder + Medieval Poor odds $4.8k 185 devs
  22. City Builder + War Poor odds $4.1k 48 devs
  23. City Builder + Robots Poor odds $3.8k 12 devs
  24. City Builder + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.6k 73 devs
  25. City Builder + Female Protagonist Poor odds $3.6k 13 devs
  26. City Builder + Space Poor odds $2.9k 50 devs
  27. City Builder + Futuristic Poor odds $2.7k 50 devs
  28. City Builder + Nature Poor odds $2.3k 88 devs
  29. City Builder + Pirates Dead $13k 3 devs
  30. City Builder + Mystery Dead $4.6k 9 devs
  31. City Builder + Romance Dead $1.5k 8 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M RimWorld 2018 · $219M Factorio 2020 · $201M Cities: Skylines 2015 · $198M Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition 2019 · $167M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Factorio older $35.00 191,814 97% 5.8M $201M (exactly $201,404,700) Wube Software LTD.
Cities: Skylines older $29.99 220,465 92% 6.6M $198M (exactly $198,352,360) Colossal Order
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Planet Zoo older $44.99 81,191 90% 2.4M $110M (exactly $109,583,493) Frontier Developments
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Cities: Skylines II older $49.99 64,211 57% 1.9M $96M (exactly $96,297,237) Iceflake Studios, Colossal Order
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry
inZOI · EA $39.99 30,020 77% 901k $36M (exactly $36,014,994) inZOI Studio
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
Planet Coaster 2 $49.99 13,047 74% 391k $20M (exactly $19,566,586) Frontier Developments

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.