Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon City Builder?

City Builder + Dragons

Only 8 developers shipped a Dragon City Builder in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sunbreak War, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×19 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $32k, ×52 the market median. Revenue is up 2185% on the market; 14 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 18.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 2185% on the market, 14 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for City Builder + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Median $12k (exactly $11,696)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,500)
Top 5% $33k (exactly $32,903)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 29
Announced 14
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2185% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 284 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $32k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 14 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dungeon Alchemist · EA older $44.99 2,666 94% 80k $3.6M (exactly $3,598,300) Briganti
Fallen Enchantress: Legendary Heroes older $24.99 1,655 78% 50k $1.2M (exactly $1,240,754) Stardock Entertainment
Driftland: The Magic Revival older $19.99 1,439 73% 43k $863k (exactly $862,968) Star Drifters
Aground older $14.99 1,823 94% 55k $820k (exactly $819,803) Fancy Fish Games, SnöBox Studio
FlowScape older $14.99 1,230 84% 37k $553k (exactly $553,131) Pixel Forest Games
Drago Noka older $19.99 140 78% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) GeSEI unkan (ゲ製うんかん)
Sunbreak War $8.99 122 81% 3.7k $33k (exactly $32,903) Candlelight Studio
Skyship Quest Story $12.99 68 52% 2.0k $27k (exactly $26,500) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd
Realms of Madness $15.99 39 89% 1.2k $19k (exactly $18,708) Robin van der Horst
My Fantastic Ranch: Unicorns & Dragons older $29.99 17 47% 510 $15k (exactly $15,295) Piece of Cake Fabulous
WarOfGods 2 $29.99 13 76% 390 $12k (exactly $11,696) Mensa World
New Yankee: Pirate Trap $6.99 11 81% 330 $2.3k (exactly $2,307) Alawar Casual
New Yankee: Jelly Chaos $6.99 10 100% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) Alawar Casual
New Yankee: The Way of the Knight $6.99 7 85% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) Alawar Casual
スローライフサバイバー/SlowLife Survivor $6.99 5 0% 150 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) MIZUBLUE GAMES
Gladiator $2.99 8 0% 240 $718 (exactly $718) coreloop
饥饿的英灵殿 $8.99 1 100% 30 $270 (exactly $270) 饥饿殿主

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.