Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic City Builder?

City Builder + Futuristic

Of 50 developers who shipped a Futuristic City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×841 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 92 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 92 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $35k → $1.6k → $28k → $4.0k → $3.8k → $1.3k → $7.5k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,699)
Top 25% $9.7k (exactly $9,742)
Top 5% $528k (exactly $528,336)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 115
Announced 92
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Building, Strategy, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,742 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $9.7k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 9 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Anno 2205™ older $39.99 6,115 70% 183k $7.3M (exactly $7,336,166) Blue Byte
Anno 2070™ older $19.99 11,571 59% 347k $6.9M (exactly $6,939,129) Blue Byte, Related Designs
Age of Wonders: Planetfall older $29.99 4,758 80% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) Triumph Studios
Cliff Empire older $17.99 4,194 87% 126k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,502) Lion's Shade
Command & Conquer 3 Tiberium Wars™ older $6.96 8,777 89% 263k $1.8M (exactly $1,832,638) EA Los Angeles
Industries of Titan older $29.99 1,553 61% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,234) Brace Yourself Games
Spacebase DF-9 older $9.99 3,356 17% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,793) Double Fine Productions
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
Dystopika older $6.99 3,413 95% 102k $716k (exactly $715,706) Voids Within
Modulus: Factory Automation $24.99 817 90% 25k $613k (exactly $612,505) Happy Volcano
Microtopia $19.99 881 87% 26k $528k (exactly $528,336) Cordyceps Collective
MegaFactory Titan $19.99 150 76% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Q Switched Productions, LLC
Technotopia $4.99 599 86% 18k $90k (exactly $89,670) Yustas
Desperate Place $10.99 253 66% 7.6k $83k (exactly $83,414) BruceGalaxy
Amberspire $24.99 58 86% 1.7k $43k (exactly $43,483) Lunar Division
Oasis Mission: Colony Sim $14.99 91 56% 2.7k $41k (exactly $40,923) Lunar pug studio
Possible One: Lunar Industries · EA $24.99 53 64% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Upstairs Games
Space Drilling Station · EA $19.99 63 90% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) Ayota Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.