Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War City Builder?

City Builder + War

Of 48 developers who shipped a War City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 104 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×6.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5108 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 104 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 104 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30k → $1.1k → $67k → $1.9k → $4.3k → $131k → $6.1k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,075)
Top 25% $131k (exactly $131,334)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 163
Announced 104
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Building
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 62% positive over 69,512 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 104 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Age of Empires IV: Anniversary Edition older $39.99 72,275 85% 2.2M $87M (exactly $86,708,318) World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forg… (World's Edge, Relic Entertainment, Forgotten Empires, Climax Studios)
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Age of Empires III: Definitive Edition older $34.99 37,093 84% 1.1M $39M (exactly $38,936,522) World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten… (World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten Empires)
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
Bellwright · EA older $29.99 20,130 80% 604k $18M (exactly $18,110,961) Donkey Crew
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Age of Empires: Definitive Edition older $19.99 14,315 84% 429k $8.6M (exactly $8,584,706) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantal… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantalus)
Rise of Nations: Extended Edition older $19.99 13,358 94% 401k $8.0M (exactly $8,010,793) SkyBox Labs, Big Huge Games
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
Ground of Aces · EA $29.99 1,415 84% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076) Blindflug Studios AG
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Mandate Order · EA $19.99 1,110 81% 33k $666k (exactly $665,667) Digital Sky
Territory: Farming and Warfare $14.99 738 84% 22k $332k (exactly $331,879) Wit Studio
Builders of Greece $19.99 537 54% 16k $322k (exactly $322,039) BLUM Entertainment, Strategy Labs
There Are No Orcs $8.99 1,188 93% 36k $320k (exactly $320,404) BaseTrade Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.