Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy City Builder?

City Builder + Fantasy

Of 161 developers who shipped a Fantasy City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 294 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×9.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1199 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 294 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 294 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 161
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.3k → $4.8k → $8.1k → $11k → $13k → $3.9k → $14k (still earning) → $478 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 161
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Median $6.0k (exactly $5,994)
Top 25% $46k (exactly $45,554)
Top 5% $753k (exactly $753,248)
Developers, 2 yr 161
Released games 403
Announced 294
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 62,125 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $6.0k, 1 in 4 over $45k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 79 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 294 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Kingdom Two Crowns older $19.99 31,259 90% 938k $19M (exactly $18,746,022) Fury Studios, Coatsink
Ni no Kuni™ II: Revenant Kingdom older $59.99 8,100 82% 243k $15M (exactly $14,577,570) LEVEL5 Inc.
Thronefall $12.99 22,966 96% 689k $8.9M (exactly $8,949,850) GrizzlyGames, Mythwright
Craft The World older $18.99 15,074 88% 452k $8.6M (exactly $8,587,658) Dekovir Entertainment, Sibear Games
Stacklands older $7.99 29,244 96% 877k $7.0M (exactly $7,009,787) Sokpop Collective
Songs of Syx · EA older $24.99 8,842 94% 265k $6.6M (exactly $6,628,847) Gamatron AB
Stonehearth older $19.99 10,652 76% 320k $6.4M (exactly $6,388,004) Radiant Entertainment
War for the Overworld older $29.99 6,495 85% 195k $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) Brightrock Games
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Airborne Empire $29.99 852 86% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) The Wandering Band LLC
Border Pioneer $14.99 1,675 86% 50k $753k (exactly $753,248) Yahzj Games
Gold Gold Adventure Gold $24.99 907 70% 27k $680k (exactly $679,978) Can Can Can a Man

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.