Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military City Builder?

City Builder + Military

Of 43 developers who shipped a Military City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5108 the market median. Revenue is up 155% on the market; 55 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 55 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $34k → $449 → $3.5k → $7.0k → $17k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $897 (exactly $897)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,844)
Top 25% $121k (exactly $120,520)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 106
Announced 55
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.20

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Building
Price point
$9.20 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.20.

The top 10 games average 56% positive over 59,780 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Age of Empires III: Definitive Edition older $34.99 37,093 84% 1.1M $39M (exactly $38,936,522) World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten… (World's Edge, Tantalus Media, Forgotten Empires)
A Total War Saga: THRONES OF BRITANNIA older $19.99 12,326 70% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,391,902) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Stronghold: Warlords older $39.99 4,449 65% 133k $5.3M (exactly $5,337,465) Firefly Studios
Stronghold Crusader HD (2012) older $9.99 17,564 97% 527k $5.3M (exactly $5,263,931) Firefly Studios
Ara History Untold: Anniversary Edition $49.99 2,141 68% 64k $3.2M (exactly $3,210,858) Oxide Games
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Stronghold 2: Steam Edition older $14.99 4,881 88% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,986) Firefly Studios
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Ground of Aces · EA $29.99 1,415 84% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,273,076) Blindflug Studios AG
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Citadelum $24.99 1,005 83% 30k $753k (exactly $753,448) Abylight Barcelona
Mandate Order · EA $19.99 1,110 81% 33k $666k (exactly $665,667) Digital Sky
Territory: Farming and Warfare $14.99 738 84% 22k $332k (exactly $331,879) Wit Studio
There Are No Orcs $8.99 1,188 93% 36k $320k (exactly $320,404) BaseTrade Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.