Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Strategy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Strategy game?

Strategy

Of 8,132 developers who shipped a Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14,028 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×500 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 14,028 games are announced against 5,188 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 14,028 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8,132
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.5k → $1.5k → $1.2k → $1.2k → $1.1k → $839 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8,132
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $8.8k (exactly $8,814)
Top 5% $314k (exactly $314,048)
Developers, 2 yr 8,132
Released games 27,969
Announced 14,028
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 898,728 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $840, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 4,209 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14,028 games are announced against 5,188 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Strategy

77 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Strategy + Zombies Poor odds $958 213 devs
  2. Strategy + Underground Poor odds $955 79 devs
  3. Strategy + Space Poor odds $899 534 devs
  4. Strategy + Psychological Horror Poor odds $899 333 devs
  5. Strategy + Cats Poor odds $899 137 devs
  6. Strategy + Sci-fi Poor odds $898 941 devs
  7. Strategy + Time Travel Poor odds $898 36 devs
  8. Strategy + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $897 256 devs
  9. Strategy + Psychological Poor odds $896 160 devs
  10. Strategy + Thriller Poor odds $807 116 devs
  11. Strategy + Cyberpunk Poor odds $750 209 devs
  12. Strategy + Supernatural Poor odds $748 130 devs
  13. Strategy + Nature Poor odds $719 346 devs
  14. Strategy + Robots Poor odds $719 182 devs
  15. Strategy + Demons Poor odds $719 180 devs
  16. Strategy + Futuristic Poor odds $672 446 devs
  17. Strategy + Horror Poor odds $629 527 devs
  18. Strategy + Dogs Poor odds $629 43 devs
  19. Strategy + Conspiracy Poor odds $599 51 devs
  20. Strategy + Ninja Poor odds $599 27 devs
  21. Strategy + Aliens Poor odds $539 201 devs
  22. Strategy + Mystery Poor odds $538 363 devs
  23. Strategy + Detective Poor odds $358 153 devs
  24. Strategy + Superhero Poor odds $240 20 devs
  25. Strategy + Transhumanism Poor odds $210 11 devs
  26. Strategy + Werewolves Poor odds $0 13 devs
  27. Strategy + Assassins Dead $359 29 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Hearts of Iron IV 2016 · $412M Dead by Daylight 2016 · $411M 7 Days to Die 2024 · $369M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Dead by Daylight older $19.99 685,423 78% 21M $411M (exactly $411,048,173) Behaviour Interactive Inc.
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord older $49.99 230,490 87% 6.9M $346M (exactly $345,665,853) TaleWorlds Entertainment
Satisfactory older $39.99 234,993 97% 7.0M $282M (exactly $281,921,102) Coffee Stain Studios
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Dispatch $29.99 174,624 97% 5.2M $157M (exactly $157,109,213) AdHoc Studio
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard $59.99 41,393 67% 1.2M $74M (exactly $74,494,982) BioWare
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Timberborn $34.99 38,529 95% 1.2M $40M (exactly $40,443,891) Mechanistry

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.