Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Strategy game?

Strategy + Detective

Of 153 developers who shipped a Detective Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 227 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $89. 227 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper, while revenue is up 55% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 227 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 153
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $987 → $1.5k → $599 → $599 → $1.0k → $300 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 153
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $358 (exactly $358)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 5% $175k (exactly $174,814)
Developers, 2 yr 153
Released games 417
Announced 227
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 21,610 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 8 in 10 of the 77 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 227 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Batman™: Arkham Knight older $19.99 111,190 92% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,680,643) Rocksteady Studios
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
L.A. Noire older $19.99 31,099 85% 933k $19M (exactly $18,650,070) Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition older $49.99 10,810 89% 324k $16M (exactly $16,211,757) h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc.
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
This Is the Police older $14.99 9,153 82% 275k $4.1M (exactly $4,116,104) Weappy Studio
Deceive Inc. older $19.99 4,755 84% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,851,574) Sweet Bandits Studios
This Is the Police 2 older $14.99 5,330 77% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,396,901) Weappy Studio
Staffer Case: A Supernatural Mystery Adventure older $16.99 4,074 93% 122k $2.1M (exactly $2,076,518) Team Tetrapod
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
The House of Tesla: Definitive Edition $24.99 836 72% 25k $627k (exactly $626,749) Blue Brain Games
Sinister Night 2 $9.99 1,800 86% 54k $539k (exactly $539,460) Bug Inventors
HackHub - Ultimate Hacker Simulator $16.99 937 88% 28k $478k (exactly $477,589) HotBunny
Misty Judgment $8.99 1,170 92% 35k $316k (exactly $315,549) 次元边界
Trainee Death Simulator $5.99 1,746 92% 52k $314k (exactly $313,756) Bone Nail
The Joker's Game $11.99 486 82% 15k $175k (exactly $174,814) All In Game Co., Limited
Lightracer: For Judge $9.99 462 92% 14k $138k (exactly $138,461) Smartmelon Games
晨昏线 $9.99 427 76% 13k $128k (exactly $127,972) Enter Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.