Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Transhumanism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transhumanist Strategy game?

Strategy + Transhumanism

Only 11 developers shipped a Transhumanist Strategy game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Quasimorph, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210, ×0.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 35 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper, while momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 35 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Transhumanism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $206k → $210 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Transhumanism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $210 (exactly $210)
Top 25% $5.9k (exactly $5,937)
Top 5% $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 44
Announced 35
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 350% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Transhumanism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 8 games average 82% positive over 7,258 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $210, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $5.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 35 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
Ashes of the Singularity: Escalation older $29.99 2,704 76% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,432,789) Stardock Entertainment, Oxide Games
Lightracer Spark older $12.99 970 83% 29k $378k (exactly $378,009) Smartmelon Games
Creature Lab older $19.99 343 51% 10k $206k (exactly $205,697) Image Power S.A.
Disintegration older $29.99 210 60% 6.3k $189k (exactly $188,937) V1 Interactive
The Banished Vault older $24.99 189 78% 5.7k $142k (exactly $141,693) Lunar Division
System Crash older $14.99 250 83% 7.5k $112k (exactly $112,425) Rogue Moon Studios
War of the Human Tanks older $9.99 339 91% 10k $102k (exactly $101,598) Yakiniku Banzai
Re-Legion older $9.99 200 62% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,940) Ice Code Games
Holonoptic $19.95 16 93% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,576) Glazial
Journey of Resurgence · EA $17.99 11 81% 330 $5.9k (exactly $5,937) Stellar Realms Network
Bloodless Heart $2.99 31 87% 930 $2.8k (exactly $2,781) Jarkem
Cendovia Uprising · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Warp Drive Games
Dream of Becoming $6.99 1 0% 30 $210 (exactly $210)
Provisional Authority: An AI Governance Simulation $5.99 1 0% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Synthetic Mandate
Xenocide $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Cryptomnesic
Sky Scaffold · EA $8.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Asleepius Games
Blackfall: Cyborgs Down $14.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Legendary Games Studios LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.