Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Strategy game?

Strategy + Supernatural

Of 130 developers who shipped a Supernatural Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 191 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $70k, ×113 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 191 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 191 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 130
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $537 → $5.4k → $1.1k → $3.4k → $300 → $898 → $1.4k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 130
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,940)
Top 5% $71k (exactly $70,765)
Developers, 2 yr 130
Released games 295
Announced 191
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Dark, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 3,146 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $750, 1 in 4 over $4.9k, 1 in 20 over $70k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 61 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 191 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 3 Reload older $59.99 43,497 95% 1.3M $78M (exactly $78,281,551) ATLUS
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Spellcaster University older $24.99 3,424 83% 103k $2.6M (exactly $2,566,973) Sneaky Yak Studio
Hard West older $19.99 4,103 74% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,460,569) CreativeForge Games
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
Kunitsu-Gami: Path of the Goddess older $39.99 1,898 92% 57k $2.3M (exactly $2,277,031) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
At Dead Of Night older $15.99 3,289 94% 99k $1.6M (exactly $1,577,733) Baggy Cat Ltd.
Yomawari: Night Alone older $19.99 1,948 75% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,168,216) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc.
The Lamplighters League older $49.99 726 71% 22k $1.1M (exactly $1,088,782) Harebrained Schemes
Worshippers of Cthulhu $24.99 1,305 80% 39k $978k (exactly $978,358) Crazy Goat Games
Night is Coming · EA $24.99 387 59% 12k $290k (exactly $290,134) Wild Forest Studio
Ghost Master: Resurrection $19.99 374 82% 11k $224k (exactly $224,288) Mechano Story Studio
Exorcism Agency $12.99 222 91% 6.7k $87k (exactly $86,513) YINGGUO GAME
Malys $14.99 172 79% 5.2k $77k (exactly $77,348) Summerfall Studios
SEXOPHOBIA 🔞 $14.99 168 78% 5.0k $76k (exactly $75,550) Lewd Star
THE SPIRIT LIFT $19.99 118 94% 3.5k $71k (exactly $70,765) prettysmart games
Deck of Souls $11.99 153 84% 4.6k $55k (exactly $55,034) Bigboot Studios
Friday Fever $9.99 170 76% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,949) Shansik Games
Ire: A Prologue $19.99 77 61% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) ProbablyMonsters

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.