Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Assassins

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin Strategy game?

Strategy + Assassins

Of 29 developers who shipped an Assassin Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 20 developers shipped in the last year and 53 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 310% on the market, 53 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $269 → $897 → $210 → $359 → $479 → $809 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $809 (exactly $809)
Top 5% $14k (exactly $14,024)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 125
Announced 53
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 310% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Strategy; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, RPG, Logic
Price point
$5.00 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.00.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,180 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $800, 1 in 20 over $14k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Counter-Strike older $9.99 169,780 96% 5.1M $51M (exactly $50,883,066) Valve
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun older $39.99 30,845 96% 925k $37M (exactly $37,004,746) Mimimi Games
Hitman: Absolution™ older $19.99 49,637 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $29,767,309) Io-Interactive A/S
Assassin's Creed® Syndicate older $29.99 31,087 80% 933k $28M (exactly $27,968,974) Ubisoft Quebec, in collaboration with U… (Ubisoft Quebec, in collaboration with Ubisoft Annecy, Bucharest, Kiev, Montreal, Montpellier, Shanghai, Singapore, Sofia, Toronto studios)
Desperados III older $39.99 11,880 96% 356k $14M (exactly $14,252,436) Mimimi Games
Partisans 1941 older $29.99 7,531 82% 226k $6.8M (exactly $6,775,641) Alter Games
Aragami older $19.99 10,234 90% 307k $6.1M (exactly $6,137,330) Lince Works
Hitman: Blood Money older $9.99 13,642 93% 409k $4.1M (exactly $4,088,507) Io-Interactive A/S
Deceive Inc. older $19.99 4,755 84% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,851,574) Sweet Bandits Studios
Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice older $19.99 3,965 93% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,377,810) Mimimi Games
Evil School $7.99 1,058 92% 32k $254k (exactly $253,603) CineGame Interactive
烧尾宴 $8.99 52 75% 1.6k $14k (exactly $14,024) 有点正经
Project Chameleon $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Anonymous King
Empire of Vice : Chicago · EA $16.99 9 77% 270 $4.6k (exactly $4,587) Artifex Parvus
Reverse Fishing $4.99 17 94% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Doug
Assassinvisible $6.99 10 100% 300 $2.1k (exactly $2,097) Club Tartine
Pretty Agent 2 $4.99 7 28% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) MC GAME
Last Shinobi $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Dark Tomato Studio
The King of Assassins - The Kingdom $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Faith Studio Team, Rabie Mounther Haddad
Fur and Void $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) DFS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.