Do I ship it?

Games › Strategy › Strategy + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Strategy game?

Strategy + Underground

Of 79 developers who shipped an Underground Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×351 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 136 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 136 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 79
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $27k → $22k → $1.5k → $449 → $3.8k → $4.9k → $599 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 79
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $955 (exactly $955)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,095)
Top 5% $220k (exactly $220,475)
Developers, 2 yr 79
Released games 171
Announced 136
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Mining, Management
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 9,764 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $960, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

War for the Overworld 2015 · $5.8M Until We Die 2021 · $2.2M MineMogul 2025 · EA · $1.9M KeeperRL 2024 · $1.0M Lumencraft 2023 · $651k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
War for the Overworld older $29.99 6,495 85% 195k $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) Brightrock Games
Until We Die older $16.99 4,221 62% 127k $2.2M (exactly $2,151,444) Pixeye Games
MineMogul · EA $14.99 4,330 96% 130k $1.9M (exactly $1,947,201) NoodleForge (Gvarados & Diomonder)
KeeperRL older $19.99 1,677 83% 50k $1.0M (exactly $1,005,697) Electric Succubi
Lumencraft older $19.99 1,086 75% 33k $651k (exactly $651,274) 2Dynamic Games
Coal LLC $14.99 1,343 92% 40k $604k (exactly $603,947) Bye Bye Ocean
Dungeon 100 older $11.99 1,562 81% 47k $562k (exactly $561,851) 可布和常常诶
Million Depth $16.99 673 93% 20k $343k (exactly $343,028) Cyber Space Biotope
STATIONflow older $17.99 479 85% 14k $259k (exactly $258,516) DMM GAMES
The Ball older $9.99 830 74% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Teotl Studios
Air Defender · EA $20.19 364 78% 11k $220k (exactly $220,475) ROTOR3
You Know The Drill $4.99 1,022 92% 31k $153k (exactly $152,993) ludokai
Diggin $6.99 635 80% 19k $133k (exactly $133,160) Longshot Studio
Deep Corp · EA $11.99 365 89% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) KishMish Games
Dying Breed · EA $17.99 218 71% 6.5k $118k (exactly $117,655) Sarnayer
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
Chipmatic $11.99 158 65% 4.7k $57k (exactly $56,833) Molter

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.