Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Aliens

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Alien Strategy game?

Strategy + Aliens

Of 201 developers who shipped an Alien Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 338 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×184 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 338 games are announced against 112 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 338 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Aliens
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 201
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $386 → $2.3k → $1.3k → $1.2k → $629 → $450 → $539 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Aliens: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 201
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $6.2k (exactly $6,235)
Top 5% $115k (exactly $115,454)
Developers, 2 yr 201
Released games 650
Announced 338
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Aliens
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Tactical, Base Building, Roguelite
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 16,262 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $540, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 8 in 10 of the 108 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 338 games are announced against 112 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Aliens: Dark Descent older $39.99 15,310 87% 459k $18M (exactly $18,367,407) Tindalos Interactive
XCOM: Enemy Unknown older $14.99 40,345 93% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,143,146) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux)
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Starship Troopers: Terran Command older $29.99 9,214 87% 276k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,836) The Artistocrats
The Universim older $29.99 8,465 79% 254k $7.6M (exactly $7,615,960) Crytivo
Galactic Civilizations III older $29.99 8,337 77% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) Stardock Entertainment
Aliens vs. Predator™ older $14.99 16,268 91% 488k $7.3M (exactly $7,315,720) Rebellion
XCOM®: Chimera Squad older $9.99 20,602 71% 618k $6.2M (exactly $6,174,419) Firaxis Games
Halo Wars: Definitive Edition older $19.99 8,627 92% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,173,612) Ensemble Studios, Behaviour Interactive… (Ensemble Studios, Behaviour Interactive, 343 Industries)
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Drill Core $19.99 2,130 84% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,277,361) Hungry Couch Games
Wall World 2 $11.99 1,749 73% 52k $629k (exactly $629,115) Alawar
Exogate Initiative $24.99 691 75% 21k $518k (exactly $518,043) Xeno Bits
Down with the Ship · EA $14.99 817 93% 25k $367k (exactly $367,405) Iron Anchor Games
Every Day We Fight · EA $29.99 385 72% 12k $346k (exactly $346,384) Signal Space Lab
Xenopurge $12.49 419 84% 13k $157k (exactly $156,999) Traptics
R-Type Tactics I • II Cosmos $49.99 94 82% 2.8k $141k (exactly $140,972) Granzella Inc.
Void Miner – Incremental Asteroids Roguelite $5.99 698 83% 21k $125k (exactly $125,431) RyanJakob

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.